NFL · resolved market
Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde044f256463ca9deca624b5c8410d98f68a177683827d0a513646064e0a3ba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 68c | 2,643$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.52 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Yes | 30c | 2,531$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.82 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 20c | 2,462$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.27 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 1,618$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.74 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 79c | 1,404$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.86 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 10c | 1,021$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 20c | 953.19$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 794.78$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.92 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes | 39c | 784.67$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.39 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed No | 78c | 602.39$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 46c | 519.95$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.37 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 60c | 365.17$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.07 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 266$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 17c | 265.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…b980backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +912.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 37c | 178$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 54c | 174$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 29c | 153.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 22c | 149$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 13c | 147.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 42c | 134.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ce…e4dabacked No | 47c | 127.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae3…5c6abacked Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed Yes | 28c | 124.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 123.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 56c | 116.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 45c | 106$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 70c | 94.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 54c | 91.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 72c | 82.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked No | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 39c | 76.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 48c | 74.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 57c | 69.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…c3dcbacked Yes | 31c | 64.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…a58bbacked No | 73c | 61.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c69…5a54backed Yes | 38c | 52.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 49.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…f663backed No | 66c | 37.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad1…69e0backed No | 47c | 30.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8a…444dbacked No | 48c | 29.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…3d11backed No | 48c | 27.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8183…fdbcbacked No | 48c | 26.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…b004backed No | 47c | 26.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…ee71backed No | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 75c | 25.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1c…2de2backed No | 78c | 24.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…0cf4backed Yes | 53c | 24.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…a960backed Yes | 52c | 23.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 44c | 23.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…10f3backed No | 47c | 22.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bf…758dbacked No | 48c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 80c | 21.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…f961backed No | 53c | 21.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…5b2cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd720…9be9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 72c | 14.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.