TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,614,988
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,159,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,614,988 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes16c105,824$17,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,327.6217751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cf…574bbacked Yes0c100,164$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e1…39b2backed Yes0c78,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ee3…b01cbacked Yes0c76,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes8c62,776$4,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,811.612528%7 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes0c59,390$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56bf…c45abacked Yes0c53,000$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9788…e57ebacked Yes0c45,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5712…c9efbacked Yes0c27,474$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c6b…9b0fbacked Yes0c26,653$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25601.7%1 W · 59 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes0c18,014$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd77…84edbacked No74c16,218$12,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,152.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No75c15,176$11,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,770.33447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes0c15,052$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.052751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed Yes15c14,658$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,186.882133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked No76c13,872$10,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,285.735743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No74c13,781$10,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,588.4620049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b9…0d20backed Yes0c11,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32c3…eb88backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5897…5d81backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea52…7143backed Yes0c9,421$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a4d…3e88backed Yes0c8,567$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe245…1411backed Yes0c8,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0deb…2549backed Yes35c8,114$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,828.79425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+66.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad0b…b081backed Yes0c8,006$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadde…b76dbacked Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b27…f8bebacked Yes0c7,912$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0106…1b00backed Yes0c7,720$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked No72c7,561$5,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,107.461957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb15e…3127backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0efb…0700backed Yes0c7,060$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5807…123cbacked Yes0c7,021$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0b…fb58backed Yes1c6,973$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8b…8246backed Yes0c6,945$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes23c6,781$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.76320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1166…94acbacked No74c6,458$4,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.83119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes26c6,410$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.455536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a42…282fbacked Yes0c6,210$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…fa64backed Yes0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c0c…a64bbacked Yes1c5,890$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480b…5f6ebacked Yes0c5,800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf27…eee6backed Yes0c5,794$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef74…2878backed Yes0c5,785$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc6…e3f3backed Yes1c5,750$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes21c5,743$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.713225%8 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe630…1063backed Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfac3…1b7bbacked Yes2c5,100$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes7c5,077$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.073423.5%8 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x173e…8cefbacked Yes0c5,010$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0902…7752backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…1ad8backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x560b…bb54backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick1cpaid+1,263.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c4,441$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.31520%0 W · 52 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed No70c3,963$2,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.951816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes29c3,143$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.6114425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2668…9555backed Yes9c3,077$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes6c3,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7d…3bb1backed No66c2,860$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-69.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked No72c2,804$2,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.942462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75c6…6414backed Yes23c2,379$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-75.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes21c2,290$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.711799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ba3…83debacked No71c2,119$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.77825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ba…1c1dbacked Yes13c2,024$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Yes35c1,876$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.330%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa682…ce28backed Yes1c1,875$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c1,799$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked No70c1,424$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.611369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes19c1,404$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.7860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc006…e72dbacked Yes33c1,394$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes34c1,330$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.812927.6%8 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked Yes34c1,294$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.666640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes24c1,280$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b32…ddaabacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191c…36efbacked Yes1c1,223$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bc4…7ccbbacked No74c1,219$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked No69c1,184$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabe2…edd2backed Yes31c1,129$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8a…e621backed No72c1,105$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.26825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b35…bcdcbacked No72c1,083$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes12c1,049$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.73046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x305c…dc57backed Yes30c1,001$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.0950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2805745.6%26 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x56fc…e6b2backed No79c985.16$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e54…c8ccbacked No72c980$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+297.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No66c957.66$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…06b7backed No73c947.73$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.89955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes8c937.96$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.555411.1%6 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked No66c902.22$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.751711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-81.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…d49ebacked No71c886.3$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7434…e58bbacked No73c869.46$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.183030%9 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79a5…1397backed Yes9c855.56$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes3c813.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb68…9417backed No73c762.08$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd95f…7018backed No71c744.04$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No70c713.82$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.942941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5858…7b42backed No74c699.83$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83dd…fe0fbacked Yes18c699.81$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.