World Politics · resolved market
Will Trudeau resign by Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0804cab59d23f1d3096c6b3a57eee69d487ad847ac8a4ab71b7ef412f9f04034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f98…78e4backed No | 0c | 11,646$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 4c | 9,764$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.12 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 16c | 8,791$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.56 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 19c | 8,500$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.32 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 10c | 8,062$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…73e5backed No | 18c | 5,031$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 6c | 3,269$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.62 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 75c | 2,619$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.58 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 17c | 2,356$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.08 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefed…1fffbacked No | 15c | 1,902$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 15c | 1,853$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac3…2930backed No | 13c | 1,463$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…28a3backed No | 11c | 1,279$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 14c | 1,250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 18c | 1,013$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.64 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 15c | 999.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed Yes | 79c | 880.86$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.91 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 11c | 814.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 16c | 739.18$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.62 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 5c | 726.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68ab…5dbdbacked No | 12c | 508.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…ccb0backed No | 15c | 504.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 19c | 444$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed No | 12c | 403.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…e398backed No | 4c | 351.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d94…232ebacked No | 30c | 337.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 16c | 292$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 17c | 289.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 274.15$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed No | 8c | 273.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +106%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac1…a45ebacked No | 16c | 252.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 16c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked Yes | 72c | 226.26$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c5…d103backed Yes | 74c | 201.04$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…55e4backed No | 26c | 201.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 200.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed No | 14c | 194.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 19c | 192.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509e…63edbacked No | 22c | 190.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…19a1backed No | 14c | 188.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…66eabacked No | 29c | 184.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 16c | 175.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 6c | 167.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked No | 20c | 151$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked No | 11c | 147.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…d04ebacked No | 15c | 142.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…2a06backed No | 28c | 139.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…c2dfbacked No | 29c | 137.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…6cfebacked No | 16c | 127.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…a78ebacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…614abacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…04f4backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…0e3bbacked No | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…dae3backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…3af2backed No | 19c | 76.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…506abacked No | 25c | 70.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…d5efbacked Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…6da3backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…0bb6backed No | 16c | 65.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…9d35backed No | 26c | 46.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +185.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…8114backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +166%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 33c | 34.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…5a95backed Yes | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.