TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$999,034
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,087,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $999,034 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ec1…ddbbbacked Yes8c62,264$4,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,896.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c20,700$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes10c17,176$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.3740433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4556…2271backed Yes2c15,000$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes1c14,391$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed Yes11c10,944$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.282030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d1…f1f0backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes15c9,464$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.785121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed Yes10c9,395$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.161050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes9c8,885$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.6236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes14c7,879$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.558220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f81…9228backed Yes13c6,091$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes10c6,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-79.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes5c5,917$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.271010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes14c5,590$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.142119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a15…0246backed Yes10c5,504$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.762020%4 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa55e…4660backed Yes13c5,312$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.972152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xced0…dfa8backed Yes13c5,283$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes18c5,100$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.912524%6 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2083…962ebacked Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes14c4,627$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.742429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc97c…03f4backed Yes7c4,624$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.671513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89d…f5adbacked Yes6c3,828$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes24c3,563$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.84922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes11c3,453$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.854318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes17c3,220$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.6516743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x78cf…dbc0backed Yes10c3,160$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.41952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880e…00fcbacked Yes8c3,143$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.472060%12 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes16c3,050$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.51250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa2d…9a97backed Yes10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes9c2,892$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.251315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No68c2,884$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.6221531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes3c2,824$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.66567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed Yes9c2,820$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.950%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4125…4897backed Yes18c2,775$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.66955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe111…0473backed Yes10c2,654$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.23834.2%13 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa69…4b4ebacked Yes20c2,565$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…adf4backed Yes11c2,437$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes3c2,401$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.02728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes5c2,373$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.58933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes10c2,350$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.122532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x119d…85abbacked Yes3c2,287$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,267$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.131,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes8c2,222$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ad6…8845backed Yes10c2,057$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.381330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Yes5c2,000$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1037429.7%22 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed Yes8c1,843$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.95736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes21c1,785$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3805829.3%17 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes16c1,750$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.55541.8%23 W · 32 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-35.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes43c1,746$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.9414724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes15c1,676$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503336.4%12 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes10c1,574$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+111.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes6c1,564$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8420617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x865c…ea31backed Yes11c1,546$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x620d…c7f3backed Yes9c1,522$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.921040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc953…2497backed Yes15c1,503$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.14616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-79%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbfe…5087backed Yes7c1,497$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes25c1,492$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.883458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x269a…0837backed No63c1,300$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.271361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424d…244fbacked Yes3c1,228$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.151040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x108c…7d81backed Yes9c1,222$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No57c1,173$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.45749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…50c7backed Yes11c1,152$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes8c1,144$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.053036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes1c1,132$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd46a…27ebbacked No71c1,114$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.461266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+95.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes1c1,030$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.152528%7 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2f…aaf2backed Yes12c1,004$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c1…1b90backed Yes40c999.98$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No53c994.07$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.467051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No72c990.09$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.917445.9%34 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd1…195bbacked Yes13c957.28$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.01922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4b…d3b7backed Yes14c925.13$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-65.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc04e…237cbacked Yes7c910.08$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.31631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes10c854.55$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8634440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ba…e135backed Yes11c792.27$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb566…978ebacked No55c788$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.61656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce73…70a9backed Yes22c750$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+66.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c728.73$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes14c715$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.12623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-48.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a85…600cbacked Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7e…2fb4backed Yes19c680.55$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea20…d7afbacked Yes9c645.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes30c637.04$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.661315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed Yes3c627.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes15c624.72$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1340828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed No57c601$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.43650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+45.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x543e…8253backed Yes8c600$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No62c593.47$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.1821259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcbf2…75a4backed Yes2c589.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes15c584.16$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7325518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7cef…22f3backed Yes7c571.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96fc…6119backed No78c565.59$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.432835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes8c560.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.844334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x004a…8769backed Yes10c560.32$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.812045%9 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes15c549.89$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.48137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe371…d32ebacked Yes37c539.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.793716.2%6 W · 31 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-66.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3cbd…88e2backed Yes9c528.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.