Ukraine · resolved market
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5081132b043efb9933246a7a186f66737c93d7b52b2061909c6097cb8b0d553c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 7,519$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.68 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 37c | 6,639$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.3 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked Yes | 38c | 5,200$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 24c | 5,168$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,928.42 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8e…df64backed No | 72c | 4,140$2,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 9c | 4,052$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.55 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3f…c282backed No | 50c | 3,827$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 52c | 3,401$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.46 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 65c | 2,951$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 72c | 2,936$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 36c | 2,518$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.46 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 27c | 1,890$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.07 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 31c | 1,695$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.47 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,552$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.37 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 46c | 1,379$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 34c | 1,307$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 65c | 1,221$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.47 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…b041backed Yes | 42c | 1,194$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 48c | 1,182$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.32 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,170$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fac…e8aebacked Yes | 55c | 1,159$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,121$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.36 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 62c | 1,095$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 74c | 1,076$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 27c | 1,020$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.39 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 985.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 45c | 969.07$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.25 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 43c | 947$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.14 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 48c | 868.76$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 43c | 853.26$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.42 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…6b7ebacked Yes | 74c | 842.07$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 825.48$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.87 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 49c | 818.82$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.76 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 61c | 818.2$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…9762backed No | 57c | 745.58$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 74c | 712.63$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.06 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 33c | 639.98$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 60c | 631.08$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…2228backed Yes | 72c | 627.04$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 55c | 622.19$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.36 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 47c | 621.67$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.08 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 41c | 579.23$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.6 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 50c | 550$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.18 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 68c | 544.85$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.83 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 540.04$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 71c | 500$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…02ffbacked No | 74c | 500$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 493.39$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.46 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed No | 74c | 491.37$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 67c | 468$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 45c | 465$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…7ee2backed Yes | 70c | 460.04$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 39c | 447.66$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.64 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 57c | 422.42$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.54 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 66c | 420.56$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 61c | 402.27$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd768…4f3cbacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…88cabacked No | 76c | 395.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 77c | 389.99$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.39 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…8dd4backed No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 70c | 369.08$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed No | 48c | 362.62$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 39c | 360.57$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.52 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 38c | 350.68$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…129abacked No | 72c | 347.32$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 43c | 339.28$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 27c | 338.79$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.06 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 15c | 334.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…2d76backed No | 72c | 331.97$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.81 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed Yes | 30c | 322.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 25c | 314.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.17 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 76c | 312.13$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d2…cfccbacked Yes | 65c | 305.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e34…9cd8backed Yes | 80c | 304$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 72c | 300$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…4cefbacked Yes | 65c | 298.12$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 55c | 287.75$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…79a6backed No | 71c | 282.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf93…0471backed Yes | 39c | 278.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 45c | 266.11$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.36 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed No | 40c | 253.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed No | 76c | 250.15$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 50c | 249.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…f490backed Yes | 42c | 240.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…9e23backed Yes | 26c | 232.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 70c | 230.07$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.19 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 76c | 229.16$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 27c | 223$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 22c | 222$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 79c | 219.32$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.87 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 61c | 215.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…f119backed No | 76c | 215$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…5395backed Yes | 80c | 214.4$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…148dbacked No | 29c | 207.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…d376backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?this page
- More EU sanctions on Russia by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.