TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

More EU sanctions on Russia by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No5c10,469$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.1525311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c8,742$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.185327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Yes74c5,182$3,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.271662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed No48c4,624$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No5c2,341$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0512927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe9b…156cbacked No1c2,082$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…d141backed No2c2,081$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes41c1,855$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.573630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes67c1,728$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.924634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No33c1,544$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51610241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No13c1,487$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.738936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x927a…7a4abacked No4c1,261$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x058d…bbabbacked No4c1,212$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e1…1302backed No1c1,169$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3830…8c68backed No30c1,082$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No20c1,050$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.743444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes38c1,024$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.7612937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa2d…dbcbbacked No25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.74128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick39cpaid-74%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes40c994.66$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.277250%36 W · 36 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No36c899.96$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.9926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes78c850.79$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.5826238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No17c822$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.743729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+134.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No42c790.07$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3314656.5%26 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb9c…2f94backed No68c736.06$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No28c704.84$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002774.1%20 W · 7 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4499…d102backed No59c681.41$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-57.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e53…ba80backed Yes76c558.32$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked No2c555$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes80c505.8$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.222744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed Yes66c499.82$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.721154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes53c418.24$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.035036%18 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No25c413.12$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.662931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed No24c411.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No30c400$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.18337.3%31 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes62c388.28$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes74c366.48$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.83540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-45.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc158…f3cabacked No57c351.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x981a…9108backed No44c348.87$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-56.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes65c312.31$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.213545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes71c300$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863652.8%19 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed Yes76c275.19$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.382433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes74c273.01$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048a…635cbacked No23c260$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-60.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa795…a42bbacked Yes40c249.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes72c245.23$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6111741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No28c197.61$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6335341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3cc…b1ccbacked Yes68c187.43$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.466100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked No27c184.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506420.3%13 W · 51 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…24debacked No57c175$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…1e34backed No60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes47c162.02$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.95757.9%33 W · 24 L+10.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+43.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5505…d7b8backed No62c160.07$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes77c154$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.064358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42db…82ddbacked No55c151.79$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8213622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes74c134.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No53c132.89$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.712343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Yes48c123.97$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.971250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+38.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes76c111.84$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.843458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b5e…3805backed Yes45c110.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.87666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+39.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c29…5e43backed Yes79c108.86$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes55c107.02$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0330837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b75…b1a8backed No24c103.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No28c101.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.492714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x733b…0268backed No26c101.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15bb…9c6dbacked Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe36d…290ebacked No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-77.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253026.7%8 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8397…756abacked Yes73c98.25$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No27c92.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.613246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d4…1682backed No57c90.18$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…988bbacked No57c87.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcde0…267dbacked No75c82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.53342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed Yes75c78$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.762680.8%21 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6869…21e8backed No30c77.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9363…fbfabacked No50c75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.72924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd827…8503backed No24c67.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No52c66.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.162770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb3c…5bd0backed No60c66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes80c65$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.32920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-68.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd81…3770backed Yes78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e37…ff97backed No25c61.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed No53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed No54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.44427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b27…e49dbacked Yes63c58.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a63…2eb3backed No35c57.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b2f…8afdbacked No58c52.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc625…f8dcbacked No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff6…7c5cbacked No55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff7…a5e5backed No59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ea…061bbacked No60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+143.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc327…a589backed Yes45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0408…75e3backed Yes52c28.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe964…92febacked Yes75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e1…9897backed Yes77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x423a…4f1dbacked Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.