TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3ff7…a5e5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Serie A, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 53 out of 100; worst Champions League at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST1464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+42.9%+$8.57
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Newcastle vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+51.5%+$10.3
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+40.8%+$8.17
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+100%+$40
Will Watford FC win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$8.33
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$9.47
All 14 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-74.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+26.6%+$13.29
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 10 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$7.73
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$19.7
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+81.8%+$16.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-11-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+40.2%+$10.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Altman say "GPT" 7+ times during TBPN appearance on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 12, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Ravensbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rutgers vs. Washingtonbacked Washington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$5.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Amosov (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Amosov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+25%+$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
More EU sanctions on Russia by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.