Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-11-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x767f05acadc2299c2b32c3d61490f34f6387bd987dce8c6023f2b1204d184e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 49c | 19,352$9,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,869.67 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 52c | 3,053$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.91 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 50c | 1,156$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.19 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…0b7bbacked No | 46c | 1,088$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 47c | 980$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.2 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 49c | 851.27$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.55 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 46c | 542.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.77 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 320.3$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 49c | 299.41$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.7 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 53c | 280.69$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.65 | 292 | 53.4%156 W · 136 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 55c | 210$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…4503backed No | 48c | 136.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 75c | 118.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 49c | 111$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…a5e5backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 46c | 64.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 180 | 52.2%94 W · 86 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 51c | 30.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 50c | 27.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 255 | 45.5%116 W · 139 L | -18.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…aa7bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…ab21backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-11-04?this page
- Will Birmingham City FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Millwall FC win on 2025-11-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.