Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd299bdcc1aa7fb2fae9f0f324f38a3fbcc50bab6b90d7d2ce9038840ceba8fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 51c | 761.56$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.6 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 340.01$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.09 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 46c | 322.71$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.93 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 42c | 253.61$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.09 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1280…4f9bbacked No | 61c | 201$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 114.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 87.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 31c | 82.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…8b96backed Yes | 43c | 76.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 62c | 76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…132bbacked No | 66c | 66.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…6455backed No | 68c | 57.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed No | 59c | 49.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…5db5backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…a5e5backed No | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…05a3backed No | 61c | 32.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bc…9946backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848e…86dcbacked Yes | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…fef9backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.