Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5584b886e7d53a631796e189f68605df4d68798b10ce2320e9a3b79a0c2a182b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 44c | 30,042$13,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,322.59 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 9,037$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.05 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Yes | 55c | 8,175$4,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,678.81 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…b145backed Yes | 56c | 7,143$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,142.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 56c | 4,885$2,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.17 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 4,611$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.06 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 34c | 3,497$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.68 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 44c | 3,318$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.53 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93db…1773backed Yes | 56c | 1,400$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 56c | 1,277$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Yes | 57c | 1,229$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…a94fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,119$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b0…5cc1backed No | 45c | 800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…19f8backed No | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 9c | 564.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…e895backed No | 45c | 371.29$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f9…681dbacked Yes | 56c | 370.43$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…9388backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 56c | 273.11$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 74c | 259.76$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 75c | 258$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 64c | 251.74$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed No | 43c | 249.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 56c | 229.52$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed No | 44c | 199.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 42c | 191.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 56c | 178.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b69…3c31backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…c664backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9d…5eb1backed Yes | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 59c | 169.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9c…8fc7backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…eb7ebacked Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…8ec7backed Yes | 57c | 144.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 43c | 129.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 45c | 125$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…9793backed Yes | 56c | 118$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…e393backed No | 45c | 118$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 57c | 92.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 56c | 87.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 55c | 65.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…852fbacked Yes | 58c | 55.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…307fbacked Yes | 78c | 54.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Yes | 43c | 54.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…6f5dbacked Yes | 57c | 53.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 44c | 53.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…9d35backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…4201backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…dcd3backed Yes | 56c | 42.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…cd69backed Yes | 56c | 38.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…a38dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf316…b391backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0a6dbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…618fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 56c | 35.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…13bebacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…a5e5backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d8…abccbacked Yes | 56c | 30.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe71…b183backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…ddaabacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…8aacbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-29?this page
- Will FC Nantes vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Nantes win on 2025-10-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.