La Liga · resolved market
Will Valencia win on 2025-10-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae68ecc927875b0d659e9fb355e6e7d9a8e3e23a0c4aa3b56eb8533f375ce750
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 74c | 4,726$3,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.84 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 26c | 3,094$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.75 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 2,556$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.48 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 27c | 2,550$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.5 | 155 | 16.1%25 W · 130 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ff…d0d0backed Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…07babacked Yes | 27c | 1,522$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…7c96backed No | 75c | 1,521$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…153ebacked No | 78c | 1,518$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,501$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.38 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 22c | 1,364$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 27c | 1,027$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.31 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 19c | 1,001$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.75 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Yes | 17c | 983.55$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 73c | 816.43$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.1 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 16c | 571.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 26c | 443$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 8c | 431.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…eeccbacked Yes | 28c | 428.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 60cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Yes | 26c | 390$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed No | 75c | 379.71$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 74c | 350.54$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 17c | 308.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 26c | 294$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 73c | 215.19$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed Yes | 27c | 211.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 26c | 153.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -50%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…6879backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…bcd8backed Yes | 27c | 128$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked No | 76c | 127.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e16…52d2backed Yes | 27c | 114.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2b…3df4backed Yes | 27c | 110.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…3e5bbacked No | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…5e65backed No | 75c | 96.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 27c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d9…407dbacked Yes | 24c | 83.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a1…f6f1backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a062backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 27c | 70.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…2888backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 30c | 66.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…ed14backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…9362backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8153…c439backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…a1adbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked No | 73c | 51.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…7a60backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b99…01fdbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 71c | 49.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…1012backed Yes | 27c | 45.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 44.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7591…509dbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…a5e5backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 74c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac6…878ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Valencia win on 2025-10-20?this page
- Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.