La Liga · resolved market
Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78a4fef79f3947ba9e9467b59382490c2e2982528cfa115f8d47e76eacbc287d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b81…38cfbacked Yes | 31c | 6,780$2,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,678.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…a79abacked No | 69c | 3,625$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…600abacked No | 69c | 3,622$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…c30ebacked Yes | 31c | 3,230$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…5e03backed No | 69c | 2,755$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ea…bf18backed No | 69c | 1,585$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe01a…d527backed Yes | 31c | 1,584$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked No | 22c | 1,508$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 22c | 1,287$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.9 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 43c | 632.56$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.76 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes | 78c | 577.52$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 69c | 548.22$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.21 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed No | 70c | 488$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 68c | 486$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.1 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 56c | 483$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.68 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 33c | 462.6$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.39 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked No | 28c | 408.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x640d…51e2backed Yes | 35c | 352.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 30c | 351.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.5 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 171 | 28.1%48 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…747cbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +162.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 70c | 250.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 147 | 59.2%87 W · 60 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 69c | 228$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Yes | 31c | 209.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.59 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…da3bbacked Yes | 42c | 206.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 64c | 197.73$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 70c | 171.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 238 | 55.9%133 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…22d2backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 68c | 163.04$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 79c | 158.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 33c | 143.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…2300backed Yes | 75c | 132.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed No | 36c | 111.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed No | 55c | 90.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…36bcbacked Yes | 68c | 78.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 38c | 73.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 71.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 45c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 58c | 60.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 169 | 62.1%105 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 41c | 45.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed No | 70c | 39.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…6255backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 74cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 52c | 22.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…87a7backed No | 70c | 20.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 78cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw?this page
- Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20?No won
- Will Valencia win on 2025-10-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.