TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Birthright citizenship ban blocked in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,118 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x88b6…3cffbacked No16c7,720$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.065265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a90…265dbacked No21c4,000$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8312010%2 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ba…dfbbbacked No39c3,831$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.61850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed No0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125922%13 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+74.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes73c2,510$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.996442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1242…8dfebacked No9c2,364$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.612458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes68c2,041$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.898632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes69c2,008$1,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.1223149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No4c1,964$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6416144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No12c1,932$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.763859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes65c1,676$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.1311848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes66c1,618$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.0618746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No24c1,577$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.13212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…6d52backed No11c1,546$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.623135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-29.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No18c1,165$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0521022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked No9c1,098$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.194314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a6…3b25backed No9c1,016$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002650%13 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No18c800$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e9e…7bd8backed No2c687.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.58540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed No28c649$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.747646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked No10c625.79$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.194820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed No18c595.81$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.843312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-74.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No33c515.06$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.973551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes75c508$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.9712740.2%51 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No6c505.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9619436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb3…4b43backed No18c500.12$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-69.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No9c500$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.54731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed No31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1554042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No29c494.8$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4937533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes64c468.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.751643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes65c465.11$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.115733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed No17c439.17$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.524216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd889…cf51backed No8c428$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0355…4c8cbacked No12c418.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.68850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96eb…5d99backed Yes67c400$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes71c352.26$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1614843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No12c350$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.552847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No26c335.92$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.441,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x741b…b1d3backed No12c317.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.891040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes71c302.13$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes70c300$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.26349.2%31 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5b3…507bbacked No14c280.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402213.6%3 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-74.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x247d…7d27backed No38c261.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e8…0fe0backed No39c256.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83d8…9a77backed Yes78c230.26$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c47…9b02backed No35c229.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.53167.7%21 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+108.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7090…0414backed Yes61c227.66$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+136%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No32c210.68$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6137740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5a…917ebacked No7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked No43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2439522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No22c183.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.311612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No34c178.68$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.049641.7%40 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb94…8a53backed No12c172.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfd…b676backed No33c166.75$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.97825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+130.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4427…498dbacked Yes66c165.04$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick60cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed No9c157.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes64c155.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.88030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No35c155$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.256251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4215924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No28c149$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3517021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…51babacked No18c143$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.091020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6879…8adfbacked No38c131.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a1…0770backed No14c109.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eb3…34c1backed No14c105$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.660%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78bf…cecfbacked No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-61.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x351a…06a7backed No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e55…41fcbacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141450%7 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+75.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f8…0e46backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1602…cbf7backed Yes63c94$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.781163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No15c90$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1830319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed No29c89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.814734%16 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a7e…36bcbacked No34c87.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c8…f02cbacked Yes73c84.18$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.58520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb97d…b68cbacked No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes80c75.12$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.121428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+75.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8460…63e3backed No35c71.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed No25c69.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.266625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes61c65.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.572227.3%6 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f31…97c7backed No40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes68c59.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3585…1595backed Yes78c54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.982951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc195…5f72backed No38c53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.141735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…e07bbacked Yes64c47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3914…51d7backed Yes65c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.92462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe03d…189abacked Yes70c42.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.861681.3%13 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick58cpaid+31.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6099…c517backed Yes71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes67c37.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.436053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f09…6ac1backed Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.25366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2809…1b48backed Yes71c28.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a0…5d96backed Yes64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes80c17.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.510452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b7…5010backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.