Earnings · resolved market
Will Ryanair say "Elon" or "Musk" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25455f8807ec8c297da4b50c2792c3bffb721457970a875985f5ccefcd57ae05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 1c | 24,869$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 3,643$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf567…3771backed No | 2c | 3,256$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,327.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…b780backed No | 2c | 3,175$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 1c | 1,508$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 2c | 619.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 26c | 567.53$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.21 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 13c | 384.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked Yes | 65c | 334.31$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…b2f1backed Yes | 79c | 251.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccc5…ada3backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 16c | 74.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked No | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked Yes | 79c | 63.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e54…0b5ebacked No | 34c | 59.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked No | 35c | 56.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 70c | 37.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2010…18febacked Yes | 58c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…1c47backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ryanair say "Elon" or "Musk" during earnings call?this page
- Will Ryanair say "ATC" or "Air Traffic Control" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "Holiday" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "JetBlue" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Newark" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Nonstop" or "Non-Stop" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "On-Time" or "On Time" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "Record" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Starlink" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "Tariff" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Union" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Weather" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.