Earnings · resolved market
Will Ryanair say "ATC" or "Air Traffic Control" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x907a8fd2ab157362b9a09fb067858a0de7aa7b898493c70b8821d763c7f00b0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 30c | 1,710$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.13 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…c5d9backed Yes | 73c | 700$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…b2f1backed Yes | 75c | 267.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed Yes | 75c | 122.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 64c | 118.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 62.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…c786backed Yes | 74c | 40.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee53…7d97backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ryanair say "ATC" or "Air Traffic Control" during earnings call?this page
- Will Ryanair say "Elon" or "Musk" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "Holiday" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "JetBlue" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Newark" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Nonstop" or "Non-Stop" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "On-Time" or "On Time" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "Record" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Starlink" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "Tariff" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Union" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Weather" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.