Earnings · resolved market
Will Ryanair say "Union" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00f0c440067c03fb99066d0b588d8ceeafe1c862f37122c69237497f6f248511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x936e…473fbacked Yes | 74c | 2,718$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.54per pick | 66cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 52c | 765.96$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.78 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 13c | 655.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 47c | 500$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed No | 66c | 396.86$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 250.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 13c | 195$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…66a2backed Yes | 50c | 192.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.3 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…c5d9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cc64backed No | 78c | 27.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ryanair say "Union" during earnings call?this page
- Will Ryanair say "ATC" or "Air Traffic Control" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "Elon" or "Musk" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "Holiday" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "JetBlue" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Newark" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Nonstop" or "Non-Stop" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "On-Time" or "On Time" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "Record" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Starlink" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Ryanair say "Tariff" during earnings call?No won
- Will Ryanair say "Weather" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.