Earnings · resolved market
Will Factset Research (FDS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd10fcc3d3f8c1143e26b12ff6c5c317e191f758ec8020f0f6959e5f884c1cd7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 52c | 2,191$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 43c | 680.64$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.55 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 48c | 555$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 32c | 391.34$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f8…8d75backed No | 34c | 348.85$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed No | 21c | 331.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.83 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 36c | 313.85$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed No | 35c | 281.49$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 67c | 204$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 201$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…7cccbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed No | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc12b…bc7cbacked Yes | 66c | 160$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 16c | 156.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed No | 35c | 155.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe330…1674backed Yes | 76c | 133.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 78c | 117.71$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 48c | 109.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc469…51ffbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 62c | 84.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 43c | 84.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 24c | 80.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 38c | 78.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 27c | 75.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…31f1backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…3917backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…9a13backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…4880backed Yes | 73c | 38.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…9ceabacked Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 58c | 34.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 60c | 34.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…d4b3backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 64c | 29.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…69d8backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…70e2backed Yes | 74c | 22.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…da7ebacked Yes | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a6…a24dbacked Yes | 74c | 17.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.