TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$187,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,853 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb3b…c2ecbacked No0c15,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6475…d281backed Yes63c10,032$6,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,703.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a9…2eb5backed Yes60c9,685$5,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,879.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No3c9,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2702010%2 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick17cpaid+470.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No34c8,808$2,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,984.864450%22 W · 22 L+6.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+95.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0973…8986backed Yes69c7,533$5,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes54c6,231$3,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.371827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3499…2858backed No62c5,265$3,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,282.041526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-43.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe4e8…a3fdbacked No11c3,500$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No22c3,414$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.8575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38a5…b95dbacked No65c3,095$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No11c2,825$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.7510521.9%23 W · 82 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-44.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Yes59c2,567$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.51933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e3f…e9fbbacked Yes40c2,497$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.67650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No8c2,216$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.281844.4%8 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.32per pick12cpaid+985.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed Yes79c2,135$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x049a…b22abacked Yes44c2,118$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.11728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd637…1017backed No47c2,096$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked No60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb41b…36bebacked No30c1,609$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x935f…03cfbacked No67c1,492$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes20c1,468$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.771163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+45.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7528…f44bbacked No62c1,459$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes13c1,447$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+192.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a6…c13fbacked Yes24c1,283$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+107%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed No28c1,204$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes32c1,198$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.565137.3%19 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes38c1,120$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed5…5c2abacked No3c1,101$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c8…044bbacked No19c1,064$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7463…f1d3backed Yes40c982.93$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a0…9884backed Yes73c982.69$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes50c956.89$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.891844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed No55c921.67$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.24922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae42…cd65backed No21c800$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1641233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed Yes72c790.45$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b9…2154backed Yes42c788.07$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No27c760.08$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.24160%0 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5818…0621backed No55c722.78$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes64c640$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb18f…f31ebacked Yes38c635.48$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+166.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8bf…1910backed Yes15c603.2$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+171.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf8…2e2ebacked Yes70c600$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac6b…f630backed Yes40c586.69$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc112…9218backed Yes33c576.67$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9103…8871backed No38c572.18$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes74c559.53$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes15c500$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4251100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08cc…4f3abacked Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x041e…aa12backed Yes72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67f7…c1c1backed Yes78c484.5$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed Yes29c483.2$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+248.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d3…6015backed No24c437.87$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.49580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+59.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2be0…d48cbacked No67c414.46$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcbe…ee8dbacked No24c403.14$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No29c391.9$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb11e…fca9backed No30c374.37$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x316c…dd80backed No66c371.68$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabff…b850backed No28c357.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes70c357.14$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.142045%9 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+281.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc5b9…4134backed Yes30c317.3$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+69.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No19c305$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b6a…3eedbacked No30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x133e…4224backed Yes71c278.47$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…47bcbacked Yes37c275.9$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+168.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes28c275$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.69825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a6e…1b79backed No39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No42c250.23$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.644422.7%10 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d32…50a0backed Yes80c250.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a1…7975backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x304c…7a74backed Yes45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd64a…2fa2backed No20c220$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes25c215.34$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+36.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…808cbacked Yes36c215$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+175.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb0…3175backed No28c203.57$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cff…9388backed Yes74c203.37$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7633…1a22backed Yes60c193.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.142133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfcd…009ebacked Yes54c173.95$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x990d…8ae3backed Yes67c172.14$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…b75fbacked Yes78c166.58$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee7…8f5bbacked No77c160$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes53c158.02$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.553619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcbe…8ac8backed No65c153.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes16c143.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.142100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+288.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccce…2c7cbacked Yes59c140.51$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4739…b6afbacked Yes67c138.81$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No53c137.04$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.933329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca7…4209backed No59c135.78$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.47825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+21.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3409…6839backed No40c128.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff5…5892backed Yes79c126.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0650…12dfbacked Yes76c125.93$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed No31c123.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No44c121.94$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.127021.4%15 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc863…500dbacked No30c116.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187c…ca3cbacked No46c112.1$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183b…bf51backed No73c112.08$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55da…d1e9backed No66c103.23$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.