AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc4483c1c099aa6526bb6df021c91dfef1cde99f9ce26fd5f8ad30de989d64c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb464…0b8cbacked Yes | 15c | 41,058$6,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,158.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 53c | 910.82$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f5…a8c8backed Yes | 3c | 726.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 50c | 667.69$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.01 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 10c | 600.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 48c | 399.96$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.98 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 279.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 209.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ca…6f9fbacked Yes | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9944backed Yes | 21c | 197.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…6418backed Yes | 10c | 191.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 74c | 153.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 153$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 14c | 149.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab94…fc2abacked No | 46c | 147.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…acc9backed No | 47c | 127.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…3839backed No | 59c | 121.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…922abacked Yes | 10c | 121.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…275bbacked Yes | 60c | 98.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed No | 40c | 94.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 13c | 83.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 14c | 71.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 50.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…0e3bbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 35c | 30.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…9585backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…f633backed No | 66c | 21.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3631…e526backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.