World Politics · resolved market
Will Trudeau resign by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2af7fe00cc22ab4cc1aef191404979690c0c59cb09720c3b7f080318eb9112c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 11c | 26,265$2,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 10c | 14,618$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.82 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 12c | 10,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 2c | 9,200$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5f…82b5backed No | 18c | 4,453$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 12c | 3,442$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.76 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No | 10c | 2,347$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 14c | 2,128$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 8c | 1,350$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…3667backed No | 7c | 1,305$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 12c | 1,100$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 17c | 1,048$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fc…cff4backed No | 15c | 1,025$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed No | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed No | 26c | 907.31$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 14c | 859.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…ab47backed No | 15c | 727.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 17c | 724.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25e4…732fbacked No | 13c | 700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…3e95backed No | 16c | 699.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed No | 55c | 670$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 9c | 666.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 12c | 600$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 14c | 590.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 11c | 539.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 18c | 523.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked No | 13c | 505$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 11c | 487.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 16c | 485.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed No | 11c | 474.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 16c | 433.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed No | 7c | 409.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 12c | 399.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dc…29b1backed No | 10c | 388$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 5c | 374.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 69c | 369.74$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 15c | 328.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdb…4304backed No | 9c | 317.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…1430backed No | 16c | 316.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 241.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…0811backed No | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 76c | 221$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…0fbdbacked No | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 10c | 178.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…fbdcbacked No | 22c | 173.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +106%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 14c | 121$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…73e5backed No | 20c | 113.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…aaf2backed No | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 12c | 109.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 12c | 108.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…109fbacked No | 12c | 104.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked No | 11c | 101.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 14c | 97.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed No | 15c | 81.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…9ce1backed Yes | 41c | 72.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +222%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 73c | 41.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…53fabacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.