Us Politics · resolved market
Trump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24ec36fdbed34de01a6899e1812cc0c0ddfdb9fb93f72aab592116fad8f49487
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 8c | 2,901$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 6c | 1,007$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 2c | 841.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 6c | 819.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a97…158dbacked Yes | 8c | 533.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce21…7738backed Yes | 4c | 454$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 7c | 344.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…d455backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…2636backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…78fcbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…7fd4backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.