AI · resolved market
Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeefb9e556ebd2c1b7f4854090375f3532694aabb48727f6e7cfa73c64c62fdfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 30c | 3,167$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 1c | 2,333$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 72c | 1,524$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.26 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 26c | 1,379$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.38 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 72c | 1,080$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.66 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 971.01$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.85 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 2c | 900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 75c | 900$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa51…a6dcbacked Yes | 68c | 817.61$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 7c | 644.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 68c | 637.9$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.3 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 33c | 634.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.89 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 33c | 630$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.6 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 24c | 557.63$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…416abacked Yes | 64c | 543$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadef…d0acbacked No | 40c | 501.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 16c | 497.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes | 70c | 456$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 18c | 454.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…0813backed Yes | 61c | 439.5$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 25c | 377.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 43c | 324.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 28c | 311.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9e…0a14backed Yes | 69c | 261.03$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…fe5fbacked No | 24c | 255.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c87…c027backed Yes | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 223.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed Yes | 73c | 213.35$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes | 50c | 195.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9627…c4d0backed Yes | 57c | 176.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 20c | 173.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed Yes | 57c | 141.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…5525backed Yes | 78c | 128.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 70c | 117.95$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 77c | 115.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d2…c131backed Yes | 70c | 109.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2290…80bebacked Yes | 72c | 104.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked No | 38c | 101.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd7…c531backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…791cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed No | 42c | 99.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 38c | 94.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dac…f3bfbacked No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 25c | 79.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed Yes | 67c | 74.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked Yes | 75c | 73.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…4405backed Yes | 64c | 69.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…bb2abacked Yes | 74c | 65.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 64c | 65.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7883…1e8cbacked Yes | 74c | 61.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05af…927abacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 70c | 53.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…89adbacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…6810backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…e6b5backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…2ab5backed No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 66c | 37.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aff…781abacked Yes | 54c | 36.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 36c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…bf10backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…f07cbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f7…694dbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…460abacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…9ac0backed Yes | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…fa0dbacked Yes | 72c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…ea5abacked Yes | 76c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…65afbacked Yes | 79c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.