Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc848576777751e56a4db0eb5e7d4c764afbe80e116fc75584e69c0914be0a5b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $351,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $351,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 10c | 12,307$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 16c | 12,111$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.24 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 78c | 9,257$7,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 76c | 9,184$7,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164.98 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 10c | 7,393$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 14c | 6,831$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.63 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 27c | 5,519$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.18 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 77c | 5,465$4,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.34 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 17c | 4,650$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.2 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 74c | 4,553$3,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.91 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…06d5backed No | 70c | 4,267$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 11c | 4,158$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 3,893$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.43 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 11c | 3,768$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.72 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab3…dd6dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,552$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,514$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 8c | 3,336$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 77c | 3,312$2,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.16 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 3,103$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.31 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,050$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.88 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,948$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.82 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 2,892$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.26 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed No | 68c | 2,812$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…4da5backed Yes | 7c | 2,800$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 2c | 2,800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 21c | 2,751$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.58 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,616$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 10c | 2,150$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 24c | 2,039$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.45 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,000$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…5dc5backed Yes | 16c | 1,821$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.71 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 31c | 1,781$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e9…ef4dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,778$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,743$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.03 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 25c | 1,700$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac8…c177backed Yes | 1c | 1,651$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,611$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.36 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…2fadbacked Yes | 1c | 1,550$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 23c | 1,537$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.87 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 29c | 1,500$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.22 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…d954backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 28c | 1,499$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.95 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8999…273ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,496$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 14c | 1,289$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.32 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,218$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.02 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 8c | 1,206$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,190$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.46 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d46…a6bfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,141$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 17c | 1,112$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.21 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,098$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…e536backed Yes | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 11c | 1,050$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,040$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…d147backed Yes | 10c | 1,019$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 74c | 1,010$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.4 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…1493backed Yes | 30c | 1,004$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 25c | 968.07$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.39 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 32c | 932.36$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…6514backed Yes | 11c | 909$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 75c | 879.39$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.79 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…aa99backed Yes | 4c | 856.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 23cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes | 16c | 835$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 32c | 781.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 29c | 777$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 75c | 773.35$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.37 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed No | 70c | 767.08$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5125…2d73backed Yes | 13c | 763.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed Yes | 29c | 754.17$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 31c | 749.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 11c | 727.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…ec99backed Yes | 16c | 722.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc860…1454backed No | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a79…8e05backed No | 71c | 711.32$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 706$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 79c | 659.65$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.15 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 15c | 651.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 23c | 637.52$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 71c | 628.83$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 15c | 616.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 15c | 610$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 70c | 607.22$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.17 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 9c | 600$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 30c | 597.39$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.19 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 11c | 590.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 17c | 589.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4af…6a73backed Yes | 5c | 532.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…b4f4backed Yes | 29c | 528.52$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7964…f585backed No | 74c | 513.64$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 70c | 511.11$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917f…18d2backed Yes | 4c | 502.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d4…1bb3backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6003…e0f8backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.