TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$186,175
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$211,284

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,175 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4167…2427backed No17c29,507$4,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,965.97714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Yes71c7,051$5,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes71c6,306$4,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,833.592213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe683…71e6backed No1c5,228$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked Yes71c3,706$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.142842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed No24c3,240$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7765324.5%13 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bd…69fabacked Yes73c2,807$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed No18c2,600$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.711752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick36cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes32c2,364$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.991346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked No27c2,283$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.399247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Yes66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41a1…75bcbacked Yes64c1,925$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.841154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+63.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes74c1,881$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.061656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes6c1,690$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+455.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No27c1,491$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.886137.7%23 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6704…baa4backed Yes77c1,372$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes77c1,334$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.512313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked No37c1,313$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.18911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-81.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes70c1,200$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.591942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb501…d106backed Yes71c1,126$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.46850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d4…b609backed No20c1,068$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.652420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No2c1,036$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.652015%3 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid+19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94e5…6cfebacked Yes66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes67c999.98$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…eb03backed No28c933.44$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.924223.8%10 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fa…ec16backed Yes62c930$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03b0…9184backed Yes62c930$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x056e…7c56backed No38c930$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7861…d98abacked No38c930$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes77c921.63$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.73425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes70c867.66$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x309d…4287backed Yes75c850.52$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.55560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x659d…d4a0backed No35c800$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2927…c363backed No35c800$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe187…1838backed Yes65c800$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x396d…fd0abacked Yes65c800$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes80c731.78$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes79c699.99$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes67c656.08$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.931323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91f7…0108backed Yes75c600.91$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x321a…b052backed No27c596.3$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked Yes71c564.56$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes74c550.76$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4992…5b51backed Yes69c504.13$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f81…0caabacked Yes66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+178.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes73c499.98$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes70c479.94$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a90…ab9dbacked Yes73c477.32$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…3a31backed Yes20c445.06$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.052020%4 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab3…9f4dbacked No32c443.85$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.971010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcee5…9a51backed Yes74c411.88$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes60c400$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+68.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5246…32a6backed Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No28c397.08$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb5bb…39f3backed Yes76c384.91$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.38922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-67.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked No29c347.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.672020%4 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes73c341.42$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.42560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eee…2782backed Yes71c337.84$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.991050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1534…044dbacked Yes79c318.6$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.042138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes68c315$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.81233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeecf…4270backed Yes74c304.29$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f57…242ebacked No33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001625%4 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+123.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd86b…edc1backed Yes66c302.39$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Yes64c288.61$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.71747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebc…ca61backed Yes73c277$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-54.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe4f2…710fbacked No37c267.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4409…bc0bbacked Yes62c267$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.13825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-61.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbef…c32bbacked Yes74c256.76$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe783…aa3abacked Yes73c250$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes68c248.53$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.532425%6 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329c…578dbacked Yes79c242.65$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.75333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed No28c227.05$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.57520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46e7…987ebacked Yes71c213.51$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.41520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-71.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdfa2…fb61backed Yes72c207.64$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No28c201.77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5311011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes73c201$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b56…452dbacked Yes73c200.98$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8167…3051backed Yes71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3685…abf2backed No27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed No38c199.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No34c199.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…7387backed Yes66c195.65$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked Yes63c195$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7c…b146backed Yes73c194.88$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.91540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked No31c191.46$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.066820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No24c188.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.468732.2%28 W · 59 L-10.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed Yes69c179.86$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0a…e4eabacked Yes64c162.89$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x62fe…1d08backed Yes73c160$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb192…80a3backed Yes67c150.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.21650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.51631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes61c149.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.54052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe9…e00ebacked Yes72c147.11$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb30c…7ab2backed Yes69c144.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa74…deaebacked Yes67c144.57$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7735…28e2backed Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d0…fbf0backed Yes75c133.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4125…b55dbacked Yes75c133.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.52580%4 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick37cpaid+132%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3bdb…de66backed No19c130$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.