Chess · resolved market
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0f31ec11d47e9cc179e48b7e8c8265aa2c296e1e4fe5442e39fcc36436044e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4167…2427backed No | 17c | 29,507$4,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,965.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Yes | 71c | 7,051$5,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 71c | 6,306$4,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.59 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…71e6backed No | 1c | 5,228$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 71c | 3,706$2,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.14 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed No | 24c | 3,240$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bd…69fabacked Yes | 73c | 2,807$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 18c | 2,600$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.71 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 32c | 2,364$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 27c | 2,283$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.39 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Yes | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…75bcbacked Yes | 64c | 1,925$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 74c | 1,881$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.06 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 6c | 1,690$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 1,491$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.88 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…baa4backed Yes | 77c | 1,372$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 77c | 1,334$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.51 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 37c | 1,313$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 70c | 1,200$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…d106backed Yes | 71c | 1,126$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…b609backed No | 20c | 1,068$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.65 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 2c | 1,036$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 67c | 999.98$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed No | 28c | 933.44$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.92 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…ec16backed Yes | 62c | 930$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…9184backed Yes | 62c | 930$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…7c56backed No | 38c | 930$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…d98abacked No | 38c | 930$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes | 77c | 921.63$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 70c | 867.66$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Yes | 75c | 850.52$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…d4a0backed No | 35c | 800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2927…c363backed No | 35c | 800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe187…1838backed Yes | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396d…fd0abacked Yes | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes | 80c | 731.78$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 79c | 699.99$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 67c | 656.08$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.93 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…0108backed Yes | 75c | 600.91$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321a…b052backed No | 27c | 596.3$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked Yes | 71c | 564.56$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes | 74c | 550.76$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…5b51backed Yes | 69c | 504.13$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 73c | 499.98$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 70c | 479.94$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…ab9dbacked Yes | 73c | 477.32$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 20c | 445.06$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.05 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab3…9f4dbacked No | 32c | 443.85$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee5…9a51backed Yes | 74c | 411.88$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 60c | 400$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5246…32a6backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 28c | 397.08$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bb…39f3backed Yes | 76c | 384.91$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked No | 29c | 347.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 73c | 341.42$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed Yes | 71c | 337.84$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 79c | 318.6$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 68c | 315$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecf…4270backed Yes | 74c | 304.29$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f57…242ebacked No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…edc1backed Yes | 66c | 302.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 64c | 288.61$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…ca61backed Yes | 73c | 277$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f2…710fbacked No | 37c | 267.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…bc0bbacked Yes | 62c | 267$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbef…c32bbacked Yes | 74c | 256.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…aa3abacked Yes | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 68c | 248.53$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…578dbacked Yes | 79c | 242.65$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed No | 28c | 227.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…987ebacked Yes | 71c | 213.51$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa2…fb61backed Yes | 72c | 207.64$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 201.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 73c | 201$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…452dbacked Yes | 73c | 200.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…3051backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…abf2backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed No | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 34c | 199.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…7387backed Yes | 66c | 195.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 63c | 195$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…b146backed Yes | 73c | 194.88$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 31c | 191.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 188.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 69c | 179.86$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…e4eabacked Yes | 64c | 162.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb192…80a3backed Yes | 67c | 150.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 61c | 149.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe9…e00ebacked Yes | 72c | 147.11$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…7ab2backed Yes | 69c | 144.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…deaebacked Yes | 67c | 144.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…28e2backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…fbf0backed Yes | 75c | 133.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…b55dbacked Yes | 75c | 133.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +132%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdb…de66backed No | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Denis Lazavik win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Vincent Keymar win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Wesley So win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.