Chess · resolved market
Will Denis Lazavik win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a0e013d878c72b86df18111730dba7a5afea48d58f30e9d6e9f7d03aa213da0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ab3…9f4dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,359$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed Yes | 1c | 7,346$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 1c | 6,916$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 3c | 6,037$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 2c | 2,677$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 1c | 1,889$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 8c | 1,728$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Yes | 3c | 1,435$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,113$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…491ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e4…39c9backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…ca3cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3b…a9b2backed Yes | 2c | 950$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Yes | 7c | 858.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 5c | 820.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 3c | 803.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 3c | 720.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…0c2cbacked Yes | 2c | 641$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 458.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denis Lazavik win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?Yes won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Vincent Keymar win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Wesley So win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.