Chess · resolved market
Will Alireza Firouzja win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cabc97d36a165eb8a83776c363468785cdb72687acd927ad9ab0c392cfa329e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 14c | 7,676$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.83 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 2,092$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.68 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 12c | 2,002$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 14c | 1,992$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.98 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf2…47d8backed Yes | 22c | 1,895$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,887$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 16c | 1,735$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 15c | 1,543$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,186$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb680…c893backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Yes | 13c | 869.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…987ebacked Yes | 7c | 780.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 12c | 712.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…b46dbacked Yes | 19c | 710.53$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 11c | 703.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 10c | 676.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 16c | 633.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x390d…350bbacked Yes | 17c | 608.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 14c | 549.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 19c | 493.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12e…c40bbacked Yes | 16c | 450$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…947bbacked Yes | 19c | 446.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 13c | 444.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 14c | 407.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 10c | 381.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 21c | 285.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +5,582.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 14c | 283.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbc…3a12backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…aa3abacked Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 5c | 247.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf892…23a5backed Yes | 16c | 237.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe45…0261backed Yes | 16c | 224$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…e6c1backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…3051backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Yes | 15c | 195.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…1122backed Yes | 26c | 189.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…bc0bbacked Yes | 14c | 166.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…2bbdbacked Yes | 17c | 164.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 22c | 160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…eb2dbacked Yes | 9c | 146.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…f206backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…bdadbacked Yes | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…0834backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e35…0499backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 14c | 100.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b0…1f4bbacked Yes | 17c | 100.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ca…053cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…c8ccbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…a261backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…bb28backed Yes | 21c | 94.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…5788backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a4e6backed Yes | 15c | 88.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…f83bbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…58d8backed Yes | 19c | 51.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 74c | 28.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…31b1backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?this page
- Will Denis Lazavik win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?Yes won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Vincent Keymar win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Wesley So win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.