Chess · resolved market
Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04953395c761d763b72100cede52c0a2e6a2747aea04857e0678e787a992fa5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4167…2427backed Yes | 15c | 14,300$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 5c | 13,822$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.91 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 3c | 4,952$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 5c | 3,620$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…75bcbacked Yes | 10c | 3,587$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,096$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,182$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…ba20backed Yes | 10c | 2,153$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab3…9f4dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,059$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 7c | 1,441$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…2221backed Yes | 5c | 1,435$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 7c | 1,372$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 20c | 1,354$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.53 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,159$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,107$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 7c | 1,080$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 964.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 13c | 900$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 2c | 769.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 5c | 730.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +5,582.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 9c | 700.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…0111backed Yes | 20c | 666.46$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes | 8c | 651.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 6c | 614.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 3c | 585.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…a143backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 3c | 483.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…b055backed Yes | 19c | 478.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 6c | 469.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 17c | 428.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked No | 75c | 415$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 10c | 406.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 7c | 405.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…ce4dbacked Yes | 4c | 383.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…296bbacked Yes | 4c | 346.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068b…2152backed Yes | 8c | 338.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…bc0bbacked Yes | 5c | 337$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 18c | 320$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…d9f9backed Yes | 9c | 260$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…a9bebacked No | 80c | 250.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 18c | 208.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ec…e1b1backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 6c | 196.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b0…1f4bbacked Yes | 10c | 190.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 11c | 185.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…aa3abacked Yes | 19c | 157.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf891…cd10backed Yes | 19c | 123$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac30…ad88backed No | 80c | 117$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…c289backed Yes | 20c | 117$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…b139backed No | 80c | 114$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1a…449ebacked Yes | 20c | 114$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885c…1f1abacked Yes | 19c | 113$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…5632backed Yes | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…ecd1backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…d603backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 18c | 107.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…064abacked Yes | 19c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…b709backed Yes | 19c | 102$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b91…c2cabacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2556backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e3…b11abacked Yes | 16c | 98.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…04abbacked Yes | 19c | 83.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…31b1backed Yes | 17c | 83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 20c | 75.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Denis Lazavik win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?Yes won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Vincent Keymar win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
- Will Wesley So win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.