Premier League · resolved market
Will Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8ebaeda981f254630e7059be9c47058db5887e578d192a5663f768b639832a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 72c | 1,723$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.36 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed No | 73c | 1,400$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.98 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 26c | 1,065$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.53 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…6d8cbacked Yes | 28c | 978.26$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…d644backed No | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Yes | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5efc…9b2abacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 27c | 432.93$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Yes | 30c | 196.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed No | 70c | 196.67$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Yes | 31c | 162.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -9.4wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…632fbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ae…dff2backed Yes | 30c | 134$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 28c | 106.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…32f2backed Yes | 26c | 93.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 17c | 90.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…a1f9backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac62…023bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…1402backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 30c | 50.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 73c | 42.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 73c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…375abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…81e0backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…bdbdbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03e9…9507backed No | 68c | 22.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?this page
- Will Brentford win on 2024-12-21?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.