Premier League · resolved market
Will Brentford vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a583922b864c3b06429112fdbc4dfe212892204240ef689eaa6b8af478ad7bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e44…79c9backed Yes | 27c | 1,519$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked No | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…42f9backed Yes | 27c | 1,308$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 21c | 1,054$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.6 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 73c | 989.82$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.25 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed No | 73c | 590.34$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.39 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 37c | 556.72$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 25c | 316.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…b14abacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0e7cbacked No | 75c | 273.62$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Yes | 16c | 263.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Yes | 27c | 190$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 18c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 62c | 168.57$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 73c | 166.5$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f75…1143backed Yes | 26c | 136$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…008cbacked No | 74c | 136$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c88…6871backed No | 75c | 133.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 25c | 111.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2e…f1c7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…998dbacked Yes | 27c | 97.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 73c | 96.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…3d69backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed No | 75c | 63.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…301fbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…f868backed Yes | 27c | 55.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…f3a5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…4957backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -5.3wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked No | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked No | 75c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ae…64f1backed No | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brentford vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Brentford win on 2024-12-07?Yes won
- Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.