NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed846b6294cce35e19f661e4251a4e12882d2f55504a11720d6f672bafb48c27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Bills, Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,041,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,150,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,041,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 528 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Lions | 15c | 97,065$14,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,599.54 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Lions | 16c | 86,363$13,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,860.17 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e80…59e8backed Bills | 45c | 78,389$34,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,409.57 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94dc…c779backed Bills | 49c | 42,024$20,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,359.2 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Bills | 45c | 25,000$11,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,750 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lions | 56c | 23,795$13,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,346.6 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2317…c891backed Bills | 66c | 22,299$14,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,577.02 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Lions | 55c | 22,000$12,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,209.99 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…bb43backed Lions | 3c | 21,690$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.54 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed Lions | 42c | 18,947$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6b…1262backed Lions | 57c | 16,957$9,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,661.54 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Bills | 43c | 15,258$6,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,697.06 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Lions | 55c | 11,172$6,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,092.65 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed Lions | 10c | 9,476$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.82 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Bills | 70c | 9,369$6,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,817.92 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Lions | 12c | 8,778$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.47 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Bills | 44c | 8,550$3,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,790.32 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Lions | 38c | 8,547$3,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,288.86 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -45%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lions | 54c | 8,371$4,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,492.28 | 106 | 24.5%26 W · 80 L | -12.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Lions | 43c | 8,263$3,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,579.56 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Lions | 26c | 6,743$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.67 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Lions | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked Bills | 44c | 5,826$2,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,262.53 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Lions | 54c | 5,585$3,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,042.26 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Lions | 40c | 5,529$2,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,211.79 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Lions | 55c | 5,481$3,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,018.56 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd965…e76ebacked Bills | 44c | 5,302$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,968.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a4…cfd0backed Bills | 44c | 4,965$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,780.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Bills | 43c | 4,750$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,707.48 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…895ebacked Lions | 20c | 4,686$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d9…42fcbacked Lions | 56c | 4,562$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…f42dbacked Lions | 19c | 4,533$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.6 | 207 | 33.8%70 W · 137 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Lions | 31c | 4,390$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.56 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Lions | 1c | 4,252$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…845cbacked Lions | 56c | 4,165$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…2f33backed Lions | 38c | 4,063$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b2…841cbacked Lions | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Bills | 44c | 3,636$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.36 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…69a4backed Lions | 56c | 3,571$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…6462backed Lions | 42c | 3,341$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…cb78backed Lions | 15c | 3,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.97 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Lions | 39c | 3,174$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…c870backed Lions | 48c | 3,165$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.91 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed Lions | 55c | 3,091$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.8 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Lions | 55c | 3,011$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.01 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Bills | 65c | 3,003$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.02 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…cfb9backed Lions | 1c | 3,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Lions | 8c | 2,935$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.14 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lions | 21c | 2,919$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.05 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Lions | 17c | 2,801$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.1 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Bills | 45c | 2,581$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.32 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Lions | 56c | 2,517$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.47 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…b3c5backed Lions | 21c | 2,500$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Lions | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.96 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked Lions | 51c | 2,011$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.12 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Lions | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Lions | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.95 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Bills | 45c | 1,904$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.03 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…dfbbbacked Lions | 56c | 1,892$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Bills | 55c | 1,742$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.48 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7691…dfc0backed Lions | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…291abacked Lions | 55c | 1,678$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Lions | 4c | 1,665$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Lions | 50c | 1,596$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Lions | 33c | 1,586$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.78 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Lions | 37c | 1,568$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…ae23backed Lions | 27c | 1,557$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Lions | 33c | 1,557$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bed…43b2backed Lions | 56c | 1,539$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Bills | 60c | 1,476$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.22 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…c29dbacked Lions | 35c | 1,444$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483e…2d6bbacked Bills | 78c | 1,403$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2487…f360backed Bills | 73c | 1,377$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…66d8backed Bills | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…3cffbacked Lions | 57c | 1,218$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Lions | 3c | 1,197$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…6741backed Lions | 10c | 1,187$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef5…1622backed Lions | 5c | 1,171$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…79c6backed Bills | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…3d45backed Lions | 20c | 1,106$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Bills | 69c | 1,098$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.18 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed Bills | 45c | 1,096$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.93 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d4…83bbbacked Lions | 8c | 1,050$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f44…3ae9backed Lions | 55c | 1,047$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.06 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Lions | 57c | 1,043$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.38 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…a76ebacked Bills | 77c | 1,035$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.87 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Lions | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Lions | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…8278backed Lions | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Lions | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lions | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Lions | 20c | 1,000$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac34…b0fcbacked Lions | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4809…9e7bbacked Lions | 23c | 951.45$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.47 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…36b3backed Lions | 55c | 925.4$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.97 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…74bbbacked Lions | 2c | 921.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Bills | 44c | 881.82$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.82 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…21d8backed Lions | 57c | 877.12$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.96 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…902bbacked Lions | 57c | 872.26$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…0ad1backed Lions | 56c | 870.3$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.