TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billsof Bills, Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,041,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,150,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,041,607 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 528 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Lions15c97,065$14,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,599.5420634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Lions16c86,363$13,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,860.1717823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e80…59e8backed Bills45c78,389$34,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,409.572937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94dc…c779backed Bills49c42,024$20,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,359.27853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Bills45c25,000$11,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,7506734.3%23 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lions56c23,795$13,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,346.639754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2317…c891backed Bills66c22,299$14,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,577.025650%28 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Lions55c22,000$12,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,209.999259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe877…bb43backed Lions3c21,690$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.546028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd065…93e8backed Lions42c18,947$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0005565.5%36 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a6b…1262backed Lions57c16,957$9,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,661.542157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Bills43c15,258$6,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,697.0625137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Lions55c11,172$6,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,092.659645.8%44 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf2…41b7backed Lions10c9,476$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.823141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Bills70c9,369$6,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,817.923871.1%27 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Lions12c8,778$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.4725643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Bills44c8,550$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,790.3227339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed Lions38c8,547$3,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.864736.2%17 W · 30 L-7.9wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-45%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lions54c8,371$4,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,492.2810624.5%26 W · 80 L-12.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Lions43c8,263$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,579.5614445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Lions26c6,743$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.672516%4 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-72.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed Lions2c6,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203116.1%5 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-58.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked Bills44c5,826$2,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,262.537041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Lions54c5,585$3,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,042.2644246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Lions40c5,529$2,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,211.7935848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Lions55c5,481$3,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,018.5632438%123 W · 201 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd965…e76ebacked Bills44c5,302$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,968.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39a4…cfd0backed Bills44c4,965$2,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,780.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+85.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Bills43c4,750$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,707.489949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34e…895ebacked Lions20c4,686$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9602630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5d9…42fcbacked Lions56c4,562$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,554.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e1…f42dbacked Lions19c4,533$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.620733.8%70 W · 137 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Lions31c4,390$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.5622638.9%88 W · 138 L-1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Lions1c4,252$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.957526.7%20 W · 55 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ad3…845cbacked Lions56c4,165$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedaa…2f33backed Lions38c4,063$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5401428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b2…841cbacked Lions2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-40.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bills44c3,636$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.3636246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e1…69a4backed Lions56c3,571$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005829.3%17 W · 41 L-9.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-47.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe663…6462backed Lions42c3,341$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb125…cb78backed Lions15c3,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.975729.8%17 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Lions39c3,174$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2385925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Lions48c3,165$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.918953.9%48 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed Lions55c3,091$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.83743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…ad85backed Lions55c3,011$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.016758.2%39 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Bills65c3,003$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.0214349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…cfb9backed Lions1c3,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225939%23 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed Lions8c2,935$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.146634.8%23 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lions21c2,919$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.0560049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93d0…0c2ebacked Lions17c2,801$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.113255.3%73 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Bills45c2,581$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.329754.6%53 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Lions56c2,517$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.4713942.4%59 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…b3c5backed Lions21c2,500$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5211513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Lions56c2,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9628556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8769…48ecbacked Lions51c2,011$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.122857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Lions56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1205527.3%15 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Lions56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.9511945.4%54 W · 65 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Bills45c1,904$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.036956.5%39 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41ba…dfbbbacked Lions56c1,892$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.541258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f85…d745backed Bills55c1,742$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.4813260.6%80 W · 52 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7691…dfc0backed Lions58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006947.8%33 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb88d…291abacked Lions55c1,678$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9231070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Lions4c1,665$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.814311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Lions50c1,596$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80021454.7%117 W · 97 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Lions33c1,586$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.7821151.2%108 W · 103 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed Lions37c1,568$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.31947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0db…ae23backed Lions27c1,557$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.491952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b74…a4f4backed Lions33c1,557$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.991816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bed…43b2backed Lions56c1,539$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Bills60c1,476$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.2215944%70 W · 89 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf012…c29dbacked Lions35c1,444$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.261435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x483e…2d6bbacked Bills78c1,403$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.871266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…f360backed Bills73c1,377$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b2…66d8backed Bills77c1,299$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.71471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe661…3cffbacked Lions57c1,218$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.481216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed Lions3c1,197$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4112842.2%54 W · 74 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe368…6741backed Lions10c1,187$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef5…1622backed Lions5c1,171$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.55253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6084…79c6backed Bills45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.118855.7%49 W · 39 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74bc…3d45backed Lions20c1,106$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Bills69c1,098$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.188650%43 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7418…59e2backed Bills45c1,096$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.933426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-46.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x85d4…83bbbacked Lions8c1,050$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f44…3ae9backed Lions55c1,047$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.062128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Lions57c1,043$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.3810738.3%41 W · 66 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ed5…a76ebacked Bills77c1,035$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.874772.3%34 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Lions56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56013040%52 W · 78 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Lions55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5506157.4%35 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b23…8278backed Lions43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4306758.2%39 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed Lions56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5605848.3%28 W · 30 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Lions41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41033047.9%158 W · 172 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e0…d485backed Lions20c1,000$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.52326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac34…b0fcbacked Lions51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003641.7%15 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-28.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4809…9e7bbacked Lions23c951.45$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.472025%5 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd86…36b3backed Lions55c925.4$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.973920.5%8 W · 31 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-48.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8400…74bbbacked Lions2c921.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Bills44c881.82$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.826752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb272…21d8backed Lions57c877.12$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.962759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce10…902bbacked Lions57c872.26$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+29.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa768…0ad1backed Lions56c870.3$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.371145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.