Weather · resolved market
Megaquake in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8c2c11505b78c289e2603ebc3b46ebb736a73302313da4dc042a3e3db38a9f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 2c | 14,701$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 4c | 7,363$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…346cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,940$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 5c | 4,055$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.48 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…8f8bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,560$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,388$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d4…51d1backed Yes | 5c | 2,346$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…ca6abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e7…6c0ebacked Yes | 5c | 603.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Yes | 4c | 599.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 6c | 586.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…6054backed Yes | 2c | 583.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 5c | 579.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…9612backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b9…94debacked Yes | 3c | 550.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…3633backed Yes | 9c | 466.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 4c | 440$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked Yes | 5c | 416.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb4…8fa4backed Yes | 6c | 342.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 21c | 287.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821e…7478backed Yes | 9c | 218.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…4c5cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…0b04backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…ccafbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.