Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump use a recess appointment for Matt Gaetz?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f973724ce747e0c8128d63ccbaad4bc1f2aeb57db7415fbc6e87db4e2603d37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,393$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 6,893$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.75 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 79c | 6,807$5,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.18 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 29c | 6,000$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 76c | 4,685$3,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.19 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa454…9767backed Yes | 25c | 3,955$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 19c | 3,948$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.18 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 3,885$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…d5c3backed No | 70c | 2,600$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,386$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…fc16backed Yes | 32c | 1,687$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,661$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 73c | 1,570$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.7 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 27c | 1,371$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.39 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 65c | 1,342$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.63 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +230%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4202…022cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,222$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 75c | 1,101$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.25 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 26c | 1,019$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 12c | 948.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.57 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 1c | 782.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 21c | 747.12$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.37 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 72c | 699.99$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 63c | 658.61$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.95 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…017ebacked Yes | 5c | 655.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3391…ed51backed No | 73c | 629.96$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed No | 73c | 579$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.93 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 35c | 577.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…2ea5backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 7c | 475.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…56bcbacked Yes | 22c | 470$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 35c | 455.8$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.04 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…c007backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 28c | 391.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0d…c3a2backed Yes | 35c | 358.19$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…ecabbacked No | 77c | 355.27$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 73c | 342.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 76c | 340$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 16c | 338.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x271c…e1abbacked Yes | 28c | 335.71$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…44c4backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…5c65backed No | 60c | 292.53$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7d…d5ddbacked Yes | 17c | 288.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…a6cfbacked No | 74c | 269$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…8a2abacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9ed9backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 20c | 230$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 22c | 229.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…0c88backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 76c | 188.48$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…fc4cbacked Yes | 27c | 186.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…0834backed No | 80c | 177.73$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 76c | 175.51$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b0…8e0dbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8226…a1f6backed Yes | 28c | 145.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d157backed Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…dc95backed Yes | 36c | 139.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccee…3eb7backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…441dbacked Yes | 27c | 100.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…4052backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…5069backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…e1edbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…ffdcbacked No | 74c | 99.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 28c | 97.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc198…d2f2backed Yes | 27c | 83.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…24e6backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 20c | 58.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 20c | 57.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed Yes | 24c | 56.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…fa7bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb71…6c99backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96a…5aa6backed No | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…5253backed No | 80c | 17.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdb…3326backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…c4babacked No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.