TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump use a recess appointment for Matt Gaetz?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$180,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,247 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c11,393$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.162400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes20c6,893$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.7599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked No79c6,807$5,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.184729.8%14 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes29c6,000$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.92540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No76c4,685$3,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.1935519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa454…9767backed Yes25c3,955$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes19c3,948$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.189426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes1c3,885$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4826…d5c3backed No70c2,600$1,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.97366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes5c2,386$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.947331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x235c…ba38backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002035%7 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3804650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3928…fc16backed Yes32c1,687$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5461526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes26c1,661$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43041238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed No73c1,570$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.73540%14 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes27c1,371$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.3913525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No65c1,342$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.639746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+230%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4202…022cbacked Yes2c1,222$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No75c1,101$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.2516943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb59…4e58backed Yes26c1,019$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260258%2 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-61.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes12c948.6$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.578741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes1c782.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes21c747.12$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3710035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No72c699.99$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1968219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked No63c658.61$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.953953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fec…017ebacked Yes5c655.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3391…ed51backed No73c629.96$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.09475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x241f…3143backed No73c579$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.931752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes35c577.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008643%37 W · 49 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc099…2ea5backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002030%6 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+60.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb2a…895fbacked No62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes7c475.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3230319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9db…56bcbacked Yes22c470$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed Yes35c455.8$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.045851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc5f…c007backed Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a7…9c79backed Yes28c391.11$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.511346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+146.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009641.7%40 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e0d…c3a2backed Yes35c358.19$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.37520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd63a…ecabbacked No77c355.27$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed No73c342.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.612846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed No76c340$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.42441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed Yes16c338.51$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.685655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x271c…e1abbacked Yes28c335.71$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8055…44c4backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…5c65backed No60c292.53$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7d…d5ddbacked Yes17c288.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e51…a6cfbacked No74c269$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.94955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504942.9%21 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes36c250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907838.5%30 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc53e…8a2abacked Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd592…9ed9backed Yes27c250$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.53053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes20c240$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4813537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes20c230$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes22c229.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5028320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff2b…0c88backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No76c188.48$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8917355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa672…fc4cbacked Yes27c186.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf422…6743backed Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504119.5%8 W · 33 L-6.5wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-48.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6cb0…0834backed No80c177.73$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.55650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No76c175.51$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.123959%23 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5b0…8e0dbacked Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8226…a1f6backed Yes28c145.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes28c142.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x30a5…d157backed Yes27c140$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ed1…dc95backed Yes36c139.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xccee…3eb7backed Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88c1…a7cbbacked Yes28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3de2…441dbacked Yes27c100.74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada8…a347backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c5…4052backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04f1…5069backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…31ebbacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc59c…e1edbacked Yes20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd257…ffdcbacked No74c99.98$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes28c97.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.41007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No77c97$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.211,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No71c90$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8428636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc198…d2f2backed Yes27c83.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes21c75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7523639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad87…24e6backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes20c58.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.746625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed Yes20c57.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.452540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…6d52backed Yes24c56.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.563135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-29.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6f2a…fa7bbacked Yes38c52.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-54.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb71…6c99backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked No80c43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63724.3%9 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-60.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.15922%13 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+74.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf96a…5aa6backed No80c21.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05bc…5253backed No80c17.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcdb…3326backed No80c16.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53c…c4babacked No80c16.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.