World Politics · resolved market
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x618620c8156fae308a73ab3477ab2e66796b2be41077c3025f77f7eea34e7b96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $339,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $336,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 145,532$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.18 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,807$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed Yes | 9c | 5,610$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…b270backed Yes | 7c | 4,620$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 3,763$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.12 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…b369backed Yes | 4c | 3,529$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.36 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 7c | 3,377$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.61 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 10c | 2,925$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.46 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…d049backed Yes | 4c | 2,922$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,779$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.19 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,420$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 9c | 2,321$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b4…7d8fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,117$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…a143backed Yes | 5c | 1,910$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 8c | 1,434$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa4…2e79backed Yes | 5c | 1,424$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,402$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,326$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…6920backed Yes | 7c | 1,312$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…4404backed Yes | 1c | 1,167$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 27c | 1,006$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.77 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…4afdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 47c | 893.41$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 53c | 850$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…c098backed Yes | 5c | 814.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 4c | 621$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 580.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 7c | 549.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 548.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…7390backed Yes | 2c | 522.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 493.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 474.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ef…f0f7backed Yes | 12c | 428.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ab…4ecbbacked No | 73c | 428.21$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed No | 66c | 418.91$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 10c | 332.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 6c | 304.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 14c | 246.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 210.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32c…f296backed Yes | 7c | 209.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 177.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 50c | 140.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 74c | 105.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…2abdbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked No | 57c | 88.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb341…4900backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 57c | 58.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…b122backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36a0…436dbacked No | 55c | 55.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed No | 58c | 55.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…37b5backed No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…269cbacked No | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?this page
- Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Crin Antonescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will George Simion advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?Yes won
- Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Mircea Geoană advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?Yes won
- Will Silviu Predoiu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Victor Ponta advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.