World Politics · resolved market
Will Victor Ponta advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf821b8b6cd9eec7e9dfca5db2581d84442ef47d8745e567a11f6d85ad18a403
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $389,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $416,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes | 6c | 112,135$6,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,579.28 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 38,800$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 16,656$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.57 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 4c | 10,782$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.03 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes | 9c | 7,211$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.35 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 3c | 6,286$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.46 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes | 28c | 4,458$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…db7ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,100$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6943…7462backed Yes | 3c | 3,820$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 4c | 3,359$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 1c | 3,040$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…34b6backed No | 77c | 2,926$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.12 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,881$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…942abacked Yes | 4c | 2,828$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 6c | 2,700$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 3c | 2,449$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 79c | 2,442$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.56 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de7…bbb8backed Yes | 6c | 2,324$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.33 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 13c | 1,939$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.11 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 18c | 1,819$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.85 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…36afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 22c | 1,416$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.8 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 4c | 1,400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,329$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…cbc5backed Yes | 3c | 1,194$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…882abacked Yes | 8c | 1,100$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7f…ec46backed Yes | 4c | 1,059$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 3c | 1,050$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…b3c8backed No | 80c | 1,000$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…5841backed Yes | 18c | 962.3$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.91 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…a28ebacked No | 77c | 950.95$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +78%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…8719backed Yes | 16c | 822$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 3c | 807.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 22c | 754.34$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.87 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…e3f7backed Yes | 3c | 749.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…3242backed Yes | 3c | 628.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 527.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 520.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0667backed Yes | 29c | 488.07$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09e…ee74backed No | 74c | 476.32$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…76cabacked Yes | 5c | 403.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…1fbfbacked No | 79c | 367.01$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 73c | 342.1$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 11c | 332.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aad…4e00backed No | 79c | 313.88$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 6c | 312.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 17c | 311.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 4c | 282.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 256.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…f9d9backed Yes | 9c | 236.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324d…445dbacked Yes | 7c | 215$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…005abacked Yes | 21c | 210.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…378ebacked Yes | 15c | 196$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…9415backed No | 80c | 165$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…daedbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…003fbacked Yes | 8c | 130.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f5…a5ebbacked Yes | 16c | 103.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…535cbacked No | 72c | 95.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +175%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 77c | 53.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6571…9827backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…a53dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 26c | 47.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…3578backed Yes | 27c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d2…260fbacked No | 79c | 22.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Victor Ponta advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?this page
- Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Crin Antonescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will George Simion advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?Yes won
- Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Mircea Geoană advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?Yes won
- Will Silviu Predoiu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.