TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Nicușor Dan advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,081,718
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,101,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,081,718 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b7a…ef68backed No33c92,321$30,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,465.9330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62ed…a702backed Yes67c92,321$61,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,465.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf920…0559backed No35c63,133$22,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,096.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e6…7aabbacked Yes65c63,133$41,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,096.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fd…e179backed Yes70c57,325$40,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,197.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a31…f46cbacked No30c57,325$17,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,197.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28b…2873backed No31c52,188$16,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,178.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b58…f374backed Yes69c52,188$36,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,178.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+83.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes72c36,369$26,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,296.9911853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No14c33,716$4,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,639.469334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…0058backed No51c32,325$16,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,485.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce21…d5f5backed Yes49c31,825$15,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,230.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f97…555fbacked No53c31,278$16,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,577.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8b…f69dbacked Yes47c31,278$14,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,577.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7094…c818backed No48c29,211$14,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,021.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b9…cbacbacked Yes52c29,211$15,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,021.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3e…4102backed Yes69c27,131$18,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,410.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8961…cca0backed No31c27,131$8,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,410.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked No3c13,250$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.544825%12 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+108.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c12,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No48c10,413$4,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,954.5623225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No22c8,850$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.8216535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b5…205cbacked Yes73c8,476$6,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,291.363259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No57c6,132$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,501.717650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c6,109$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.066883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed No4c5,978$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9819623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No40c5,880$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.9943243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes63c4,784$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,784.238555.3%47 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x06b2…c606backed No5c4,313$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.27837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe759…e7cabacked Yes60c4,147$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.516759.7%40 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff2b…527abacked Yes52c4,133$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.351822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…d7bdbacked No27c4,000$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.431526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes49c2,937$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.427828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes50c2,780$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.894221.4%9 W · 33 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes44c2,689$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.026119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No45c2,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.995038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes50c2,350$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.566930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb49…b5b3backed Yes67c2,330$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.493259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+34.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No50c2,222$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.635435.2%19 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76cc…6689backed Yes52c1,891$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+70.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64f3…34b6backed No50c1,868$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.464742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc41…38edbacked Yes68c1,850$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.111241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No49c1,777$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.4657636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x071a…df8ebacked No26c1,645$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.031450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x731b…90dfbacked No57c1,501$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.712532%8 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No14c1,490$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2168737.9%33 W · 54 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…003fbacked No58c1,466$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…ebc9backed No25c1,426$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-48.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes59c1,352$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.4316744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb3…13e6backed Yes44c1,346$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.041136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick16cpaid+94.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No50c1,150$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.899345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes42c1,109$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.53748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No16c881.38$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9919043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed No43c878.03$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.745626.8%15 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed Yes58c862.41$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.415046%23 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed No28c779.2$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.017038.6%27 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No40c765.76$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.1331443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58a…25b6backed No3c765.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-85.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8731…1181backed Yes65c760$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.27057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c30…4e81backed Yes58c726.12$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+70.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes46c703.6$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.293641.7%15 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No7c662.25$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1117227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No10c660.42$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.445132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No40c641.85$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.7425337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b2…aa53backed Yes60c609.98$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.68825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No44c599.64$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.488529.4%25 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked No27c570.36$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1541060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No38c534.55$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9919027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf392…df89backed No52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79fa…8a55backed Yes66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701850%9 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No51c499.98$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.991957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No31c478.14$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5556314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf4d…e209backed No25c459.35$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.69922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-68.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No34c452$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.3720034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes62c450.1$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.031717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a67…a78ebacked Yes65c400$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1392142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1008…d2efbacked Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a8…b537backed Yes68c392$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.86862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes42c357$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.067423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3aad…4e00backed Yes73c353.16$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c350.77$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.081,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7212…0536backed Yes58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.831926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-29.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53cf…7d67backed Yes71c337.37$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.174037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc04…196dbacked Yes53c326.42$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.42757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+72.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdde…f383backed Yes65c305.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.742231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39a…8e2dbacked No52c303.54$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.31633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1d…a871backed Yes66c298.48$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.211540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No37c295$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.974027.5%11 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes60c285.35$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.242832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes71c282.61$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.228861.4%54 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3e…692abacked No53c260$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.741936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb8b…81dabacked No42c252.87$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes73c250$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.54427.3%12 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf83d…4fc7backed Yes45c249.22$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.882142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b52…0075backed Yes50c248.63$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed No46c238.4$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.221250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ada…d5cfbacked Yes72c230.4$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15a4…97fdbacked Yes44c218.45$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+91.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.