TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Game 11 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,532
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,532 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2813…958dbacked Yes71c5,606$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked No31c3,012$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.182020%4 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes59c3,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No39c2,004$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.435435.2%19 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x917b…669abacked No34c2,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3202100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+128.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes34c1,401$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.723116.1%5 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56d4…b609backed Yes53c1,264$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.242420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfda…bedebacked No28c1,223$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.141770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+148.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes70c1,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e35…ec6bbacked Yes68c1,000$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a61…eb03backed Yes62c976.9$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.44223.8%10 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd667…9a78backed No37c867.78$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.481855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73b7…9360backed Yes72c799.8$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.861145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes60c711.02$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.372334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ef…ba20backed Yes73c684.58$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-70.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No31c627.54$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.054639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x097c…46ffbacked Yes62c600$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed No22c552.46$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.27580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+79.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes64c508.03$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.7611011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ca…3d31backed Yes56c419.5$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958f…7a7dbacked Yes70c365.71$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+277.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a6…5ceebacked Yes71c365.2$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26130%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes64c360.59$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2303348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes69c359.86$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.662835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes69c342.86$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2371323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b50…6c55backed Yes65c330$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.81050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4f…f206backed No33c329.98$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.091241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked No34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1981233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1802…a3afbacked Yes55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b7…b222backed Yes67c295.04$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.851450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…4805backed Yes67c272.64$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.671233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b5…d48cbacked No49c257.81$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.451421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f2…710fbacked No39c257.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.56633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No63c244.94$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.531346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88e4…0a77backed Yes71c238$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…4198backed No38c235$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.54757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeee…ccb7backed No30c222$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe97b…b2eabacked No36c204.14$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.63757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked No31c197.07$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.981040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf89d…eacfbacked No37c175.73$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.57560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+65.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc201…1c9ebacked Yes61c170$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.71225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-53.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5352…659abacked No40c159.73$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf4…111cbacked Yes64c156.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…74fdbacked Yes66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d5b…334abacked Yes67c150$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-59.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.381421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x23d1…dee6backed Yes62c150$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes69c145.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.231533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x372b…c159backed No41c142.66$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.171233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c1…c0c4backed No39c133.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.891540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62d…9dedbacked No33c129.71$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.411030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1534…044dbacked No36c128.77$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.942138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182a…c9bebacked No40c121.71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.71650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes62c115.3$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.072740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked Yes64c110$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bac…f238backed Yes61c102.06$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.791241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.83540%14 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a3…e3adbacked No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick33cpaid+333.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x682a…4b62backed Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb501…d106backed No31c98.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.15850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No39c92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.228732.2%28 W · 59 L-10.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6753…7340backed No35c90.71$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.572045%9 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8de0…9791backed No45c85.01$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1518…7812backed Yes64c80$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…2bbdbacked No34c78.95$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2e…6856backed Yes66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-84.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf842…682dbacked Yes68c70.96$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed Yes57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.91127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No41c69.3$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.621844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1152…931fbacked Yes67c67.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes69c64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.16520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-61.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cb3…416bbacked Yes66c60.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09cb…b1b6backed No40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick40cpaid+153.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x904b…d52fbacked Yes64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ce1…c160backed Yes69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e54…c8ccbacked No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe157…6db1backed No39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+87.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd95d…4507backed No34c49.65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+48.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ceb…0c87backed No41c48.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.75850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa62f…413ebacked Yes59c47.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5e…1802backed No32c46.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+56.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c60…16e1backed Yes62c45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe515…1398backed Yes68c43.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf892…23a5backed No31c43.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.031030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29fd…de15backed No33c32.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.641330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c9…e83ebacked No44c31.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.37757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+84.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…eda6backed Yes67c29.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x88c1…a7cbbacked Yes67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb00…38a7backed No42c29.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d54…47e9backed Yes79c26.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes63c22.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.121711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e4…b177backed Yes67c22.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.