Chess · resolved market
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66427fc0c8cb1eb3bbf05f8e6417be0a7c0d751dde3f5883d84f2207d01787ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked Yes | 22c | 7,529$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,864.79 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed No | 61c | 5,336$3,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,236.39 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7a7dbacked No | 78c | 2,797$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +277.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101a…3a32backed Yes | 40c | 2,146$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 31c | 1,338$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.96 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…07abbacked Yes | 34c | 1,000$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 10c | 820$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc725…34e7backed Yes | 41c | 700$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 75c | 695.22$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.65 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 26c | 587.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.62 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…1c9ebacked Yes | 38c | 540$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Yes | 35c | 521.42$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…6af4backed No | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…291abacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 22c | 394.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ceb…0c87backed Yes | 31c | 381.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce1…c160backed Yes | 34c | 370$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 26c | 361$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 66c | 356.95$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.81 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…b609backed Yes | 11c | 310$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.9 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…2003backed Yes | 36c | 288$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb321…5bc3backed Yes | 37c | 271.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked Yes | 41c | 263.15$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 21c | 246.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.75 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 10c | 232.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 78c | 210.76$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.39 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 40c | 200.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…3236backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 30c | 158.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x393f…4081backed Yes | 38c | 139.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 134.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…3d6ebacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…8e18backed Yes | 24c | 105.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a5…7c6ebacked Yes | 30c | 101.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 74c | 100.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…b177backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…0bdbbacked Yes | 31c | 97.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +407.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 78c | 95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Yes | 22c | 90.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8d61backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…d389backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…dc0fbacked No | 60c | 87.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…c991backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…f206backed No | 69c | 80.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…b222backed Yes | 39c | 58.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e67…d472backed Yes | 37c | 53.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +387.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed No | 80c | 51.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…9ea3backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbc…d794backed Yes | 28c | 44.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 42c | 40.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…7386backed Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 36c | 37.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…38a7backed No | 65c | 35.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…3199backed Yes | 44c | 34.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…6e7abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 29.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b73…cb55backed No | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae9…9988backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 69c | 19.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Ding Liren win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will Game 11 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.