Chess · resolved market
Will Ding Liren win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32c42119677d5fe447510b6e5dfe7273edf6ed38754d827d2594181b97f6330e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd04e…07abbacked Yes | 26c | 2,660$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked No | 69c | 2,452$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 10c | 1,588$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.65 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 34c | 1,490$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.45 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 4c | 1,194$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 10c | 1,005$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 9c | 963.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…1c9ebacked Yes | 23c | 606.12$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Yes | 8c | 602.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…0bdbbacked Yes | 22c | 468.14$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +407.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 467.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 23c | 432.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…291abacked Yes | 28c | 421$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 20c | 373.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…b177backed Yes | 18c | 354.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes | 35c | 281.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked No | 80c | 233.58$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9589…b816backed Yes | 19c | 210.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked Yes | 23c | 209.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…cd66backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…3236backed Yes | 13c | 197.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…c159backed Yes | 19c | 157.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…cd73backed Yes | 11c | 154.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…eda6backed Yes | 20c | 153.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…b222backed Yes | 11c | 139.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…9791backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…2003backed No | 77c | 129.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8d61backed Yes | 13c | 119.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb7…65dfbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a5…7c6ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…a261backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3795…4c73backed Yes | 15c | 78.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed No | 77c | 63.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…f206backed No | 66c | 53.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…9dedbacked Yes | 39c | 50.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 46.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 41c | 36.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…9799backed Yes | 43c | 35.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…8a16backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ding Liren win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Game 11 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.