World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb1206914c67885b402d7198643a564530ba8d3691ed5304f1fe9e76c0f699c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $594,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $715,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $594,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2929…d0d5backed Yes | 41c | 83,116$34,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,038.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…e9e8backed No | 59c | 83,116$49,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,038.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 0c | 22,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 53c | 17,707$9,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,344.71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 17c | 11,346$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.86 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 47c | 7,011$3,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,682.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 64c | 6,873$4,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.91 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 46c | 6,688$3,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,616.26 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 65c | 6,192$4,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,148.96 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 6,031$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.2 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 40c | 4,600$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,772.46 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 12c | 4,250$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.55 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 4,074$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.95 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…3cb3backed Yes | 77c | 4,005$3,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 48c | 3,451$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.94 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 54c | 2,972$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.89 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…496fbacked Yes | 49c | 2,951$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 44c | 2,550$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.6 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 39c | 2,507$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.19 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 2,300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 55c | 2,295$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.13 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 40c | 2,100$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.15 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…c313backed Yes | 54c | 2,045$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 60c | 1,890$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.44 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,889$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.68 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 59c | 1,830$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.56 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…f289backed Yes | 53c | 1,740$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 52c | 1,700$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.87 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 75c | 1,499$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.25 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,300$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a1…5f52backed Yes | 58c | 1,290$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 39c | 1,250$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.5 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 42c | 1,247$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.26 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 45c | 1,182$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.99 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…a4b0backed Yes | 46c | 1,012$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 4c | 999.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 45c | 856.3$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.76 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 45c | 728.98$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 44c | 699.56$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.75 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 69c | 599.46$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.87 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 38c | 591.63$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.91 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 43c | 572.76$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.47 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 56c | 533.9$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.98 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 57c | 530.26$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.25 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 47c | 490$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…3a28backed Yes | 41c | 486.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc22…b749backed Yes | 69c | 485.51$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a2b1backed Yes | 41c | 482.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc8…7dd1backed Yes | 61c | 473.5$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 53c | 467.16$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.85 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f52…36bfbacked Yes | 41c | 456.1$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…ce9fbacked Yes | 46c | 454.06$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…22debacked Yes | 79c | 425.95$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 44c | 416.3$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…b7e2backed Yes | 49c | 407.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbd…6d1cbacked Yes | 42c | 405.17$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 55c | 400$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 43c | 399.9$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 26c | 394.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.97 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 52c | 384.5$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.04 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…de5ebacked Yes | 40c | 375$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed Yes | 41c | 369.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x275f…eb35backed Yes | 43c | 355.87$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f0…987abacked Yes | 47c | 348.93$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…8258backed Yes | 45c | 330.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked No | 54c | 310$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…74a6backed Yes | 79c | 301.06$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10eb…41dfbacked Yes | 48c | 297.79$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 293.14$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…c5f9backed Yes | 48c | 287.4$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 59c | 286.44$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 45c | 284.55$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 277.11$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 72c | 271.09$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 56c | 268.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…c400backed Yes | 41c | 266.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…50fdbacked Yes | 46c | 263.04$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…4baabacked No | 55c | 257.6$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…51bcbacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…6a84backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed Yes | 42c | 237.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…f719backed Yes | 43c | 227.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 54c | 223.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 41c | 220$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…d165backed Yes | 37c | 213.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…a45bbacked Yes | 49c | 211.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…bdccbacked Yes | 47c | 210.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 33c | 210$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…dbe1backed Yes | 48c | 208.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcb…fe68backed Yes | 48c | 207.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…fcdbbacked No | 10c | 205$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 40c | 202.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…d2d4backed Yes | 41c | 196.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd52…7516backed Yes | 53c | 190.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…2af2backed Yes | 42c | 190$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked No | 54c | 183.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…2919backed Yes | 65c | 160.85$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.