World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x403de9eb79fb9c4e8ca855f82ceed149364aad6a17fdda04e163023c94fbe56f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $364,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $364,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b39…aed5backed Yes | 7c | 81,523$6,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,032.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 20,780$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.65 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 14,184$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.14 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 7c | 10,000$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…84f9backed Yes | 7c | 8,524$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…3b89backed Yes | 10c | 4,854$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ef…ceb9backed Yes | 12c | 4,753$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 4c | 3,908$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…6dc4backed Yes | 2c | 3,715$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e6…f66ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,679$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…cf8dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,532$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857c…dde1backed Yes | 9c | 3,184$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 7c | 2,371$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.95 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…c5eabacked Yes | 1c | 2,150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 7c | 1,859$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.57 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,850$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,826$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.29 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8c…b87cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,730$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…4eefbacked Yes | 1c | 1,688$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a1f3backed Yes | 8c | 1,621$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…0594backed Yes | 8c | 1,426$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…e33fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,358$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,231$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd41e…881dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,180$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…3c85backed Yes | 9c | 1,176$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…6676backed Yes | 10c | 1,054$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22f…2702backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 7c | 990$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…2919backed Yes | 10c | 979.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…e367backed Yes | 13c | 909.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…2983backed Yes | 7c | 859.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…1440backed Yes | 14c | 716.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 8c | 668.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…bef6backed Yes | 12c | 667.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6b…424ebacked Yes | 9c | 659.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcb…fe68backed Yes | 9c | 586.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b1…25d9backed Yes | 9c | 576.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 11c | 552.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 9c | 550.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 7c | 550$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…0811backed Yes | 9c | 544.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…d165backed Yes | 11c | 533.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…3352backed Yes | 19c | 524.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 8c | 506.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6308…36a9backed Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b7…5d06backed Yes | 8c | 499.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…61d8backed Yes | 9c | 476.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 465.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…28d5backed Yes | 7c | 465.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…cd30backed Yes | 9c | 459.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 73c | 458.63$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…b67cbacked Yes | 10c | 449.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…ff9dbacked Yes | 9c | 448.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…3a5dbacked Yes | 9c | 405.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…3a28backed Yes | 8c | 358.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 7c | 350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…db9cbacked Yes | 8c | 340.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…870cbacked Yes | 11c | 307.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…b78abacked Yes | 14c | 300.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 63c | 299.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…59c6backed Yes | 7c | 266.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 8c | 257.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e3…6a3dbacked Yes | 8c | 251.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1888…d9d4backed Yes | 8c | 245.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…db1dbacked Yes | 8c | 244.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…557fbacked Yes | 9c | 232.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb6…ad1abacked Yes | 9c | 229.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…bf9dbacked Yes | 9c | 220.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2668…8113backed Yes | 12c | 213.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 7c | 198.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…03b8backed Yes | 10c | 195.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…2af2backed Yes | 14c | 194$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b47…aa4dbacked Yes | 10c | 192.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…c284backed Yes | 8c | 186$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 11c | 176.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…75a2backed Yes | 10c | 168$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 8c | 163.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 7c | 151.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…12dfbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb0…f435backed Yes | 8c | 145.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…9d53backed Yes | 12c | 136.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 9c | 127.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 11c | 126.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…30febacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 11c | 121.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…796dbacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…d261backed Yes | 11c | 94.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.