TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

World Chess Championship 2024 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gukeshof Ding, Gukesh
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,822,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,663,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,822,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1638…339bbacked Gukesh55c237,414$130,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106,584.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Gukesh52c219,264$114,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,719.57520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-61.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Ding43c209,144$89,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,374.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Ding26c137,260$35,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,482.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a627backed Gukesh56c100,000$56,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked Gukesh52c99,466$51,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,161.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578a…b13cbacked Ding41c90,738$36,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,924.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd49e…8541backed Gukesh77c90,498$69,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,615.913100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Ding44c84,825$37,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,282.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bea…2becbacked Gukesh58c77,362$45,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,147.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab1c…aaddbacked Ding51c64,433$32,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,963.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…6e18backed Ding44c58,543$25,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,633.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Ding3c55,762$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958f…7a7dbacked Ding48c49,943$23,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,757.28837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+277.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfda…bedebacked Ding42c49,372$20,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,763.921770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+148.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Ding30c45,062$13,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,648.54812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Gukesh60c43,703$26,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,698.146137.7%23 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Ding45c38,901$17,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,652.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Gukesh61c36,329$22,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,106.97911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-81.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Gukesh63c35,073$22,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,968.719247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed Gukesh71c34,028$24,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,822.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd28b…d6ddbacked Ding48c32,368$15,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,406.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Gukesh68c32,297$22,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,227.023348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Ding35c32,275$11,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,375.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Ding36c28,909$10,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,396.891225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ec…aaf6backed Ding48c28,588$13,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,698.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…ce4dbacked Gukesh56c26,479$14,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,650.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Gukesh60c26,239$15,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,523.081346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Gukesh61c26,212$16,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,196.741553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Ding39c25,000$9,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,850540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf10f…b295backed Gukesh77c25,000$19,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,749.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb9…9dd7backed Ding19c24,270$4,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,686.37825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Ding48c24,139$11,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,553.865435.2%19 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf943…a83abacked Gukesh66c23,915$15,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,151.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a62…dea6backed Gukesh74c23,287$17,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,091.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Ding47c23,026$10,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,822.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Gukesh56c22,723$12,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,073.163330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Gukesh68c21,745$14,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,012.422835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0078…c9cdbacked Gukesh61c21,460$13,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,336425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-59.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a80…e4b3backed Ding31c20,674$6,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,390.7160%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x390d…350bbacked Ding34c19,724$6,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,770.33837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Gukesh62c19,128$11,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,292.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f6…d12fbacked Gukesh62c18,556$11,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,006.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+434.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18c1…59a9backed Ding49c17,683$8,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,648.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5765…7ecbbacked Ding47c17,460$8,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,264.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaf9…c201backed Gukesh58c17,139$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,139.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b5…2316backed Ding58c17,103$9,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c10…dd6dbacked Ding28c16,926$4,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,739.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Gukesh52c15,365$8,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,327.951127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4af1…ef00backed Gukesh66c15,270$10,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,236.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Ding45c14,899$6,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,704.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2813…958dbacked Gukesh63c14,857$9,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,501.31825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd667…9a78backed Ding38c14,831$5,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,587.051855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e80…9eadbacked Gukesh60c12,675$7,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,093.271533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41a1…75bcbacked Gukesh71c12,669$9,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,655.991154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+63.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc620…2da3backed Gukesh77c12,437$9,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,803.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Gukesh48c12,000$5,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,258.751346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4004…9f5ebacked Ding42c11,821$5,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,011.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccb…0a10backed Gukesh63c11,792$7,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,401.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698a…99acbacked Ding44c11,515$5,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,053.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec3…c3a0backed Gukesh72c11,470$8,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,158.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e38…5d7fbacked Ding40c11,166$4,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,507.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6507…4c1fbacked Ding37c10,913$4,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,057.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x236a…9a00backed Ding42c10,788$4,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,570.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Gukesh61c10,717$6,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,176.925147.1%24 W · 27 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+113.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Gukesh78c10,539$8,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,342.52944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-30.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9f34backed Gukesh54c10,000$5,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,649.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Ding50c9,907$4,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,944.943435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Ding35c9,044$3,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,156.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x917b…669abacked Gukesh62c8,938$5,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,431.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+128.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5fe…1db8backed Ding47c8,892$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Ding48c8,686$4,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,210.2920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0933…8daabacked Ding28c8,478$2,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,373.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ed…b3e7backed Ding28c8,478$2,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,373.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb53d…2c1dbacked Ding28c8,448$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe346…0df1backed Ding28c8,448$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef55…7ad1backed Ding28c8,448$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd577…b981backed Ding28c8,431$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aca…88adbacked Ding28c8,431$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9351…1df3backed Ding28c8,431$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4a…95debacked Ding28c8,431$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52e2…0a29backed Ding28c8,430$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x241f…b754backed Ding28c8,430$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d2b…83bbbacked Ding28c8,430$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d79…ae69backed Gukesh71c8,335$5,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8924…ab27backed Ding45c8,038$3,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,642.8330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f66…4f72backed Ding28c7,873$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5380…28debacked Gukesh68c7,694$5,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,427.29922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98cb…bd72backed Ding52c7,508$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Gukesh63c7,380$4,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,737.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a6…dd8fbacked Gukesh55c7,338$4,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,302.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13ce…35f0backed Gukesh54c7,178$3,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,313.56955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…a763backed Gukesh72c7,035$5,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,971.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1718…4612backed Ding32c7,024$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07a…4f89backed Ding23c7,008$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.91933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Gukesh66c6,985$4,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,360.651421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe5c0…3f84backed Ding22c6,956$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee03…3307backed Ding30c6,576$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2f3…b892backed Gukesh76c6,402$4,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd62…0ea2backed Ding47c6,399$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.