Chess · resolved market
Will game 5 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd55ac89ca73445caf48c4dbafeed202afd80f674218264766971d97c24adf5db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a80…e4b3backed No | 11c | 5,393$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x369f…1345backed No | 41c | 2,558$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No | 14c | 1,109$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 7c | 972.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked No | 53c | 849$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.47 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked No | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…1f3fbacked No | 43c | 583.23$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 18c | 498.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Yes | 67c | 413.08$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 59c | 353.46$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 37c | 350$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 17c | 344.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 42c | 288.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…3199backed Yes | 79c | 268.02$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…f4adbacked Yes | 79c | 253.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…c0c4backed No | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 60c | 227.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Yes | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…68fabacked Yes | 59c | 201.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 57c | 175$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x679a…01d0backed Yes | 59c | 168.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 57c | 152.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 61c | 116.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…2da4backed Yes | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602b…c2c0backed Yes | 60c | 103.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…3bfcbacked Yes | 45c | 100.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…dee6backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb133…de17backed Yes | 60c | 98.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0df…1b7dbacked No | 44c | 98.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…07abbacked Yes | 69c | 72.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…3d8abacked Yes | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked Yes | 64c | 62.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 57c | 28.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will game 5 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?this page
- Will Ding Liren win game 5 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 5 of the World Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.