Chess · resolved market
Will Ding Liren win game 5 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe912f93652b8c6496adb45adcfca93f4dc0fd881e7b7c1fb364c627654ffd60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a80…e4b3backed Yes | 7c | 9,930$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 13c | 5,233$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c76…f344backed Yes | 32c | 4,000$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…8541backed No | 57c | 3,059$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 12c | 2,714$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 11c | 2,222$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d44…11d5backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe640…c151backed Yes | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3d…657dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,470$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…6af4backed Yes | 45c | 1,215$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…9531backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…53b3backed Yes | 10c | 879.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked Yes | 12c | 840.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 10c | 829.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…291abacked Yes | 41c | 662.36$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 560.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 43c | 452.03$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…97f1backed Yes | 19c | 446.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 50c | 364.11$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…ebb6backed Yes | 45c | 279.14$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…e5d9backed Yes | 11c | 268.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked Yes | 43c | 259.36$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…2da4backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 29c | 230.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 11c | 219.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 41c | 215$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…6192backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fd…51c7backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 13c | 139.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…94ddbacked Yes | 39c | 128.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 14c | 109.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…3bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 106.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 11c | 98.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 13c | 94.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0c…af0ebacked Yes | 41c | 87.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb90e…f2b0backed Yes | 19c | 84.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Yes | 50c | 72.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…eda6backed Yes | 47c | 42.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…5bbcbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ding Liren win game 5 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 5 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will game 5 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.