Chess · resolved market
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 5 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc0b31ec93d090fbdad172f37eb948391be0b46387986b10da34dc47fad4224
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb906…94adbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 3,631$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 20c | 3,063$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,760$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 68c | 1,245$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…53b3backed Yes | 29c | 1,129$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 34c | 636$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 12c | 466.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ce…f646backed Yes | 11c | 450.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 425.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 69c | 340.19$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 66c | 336$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked Yes | 31c | 330$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…1f3cbacked Yes | 30c | 330$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…53c9backed Yes | 30c | 328.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 32c | 253.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…9799backed Yes | 11c | 176.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 14c | 125.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…692abacked Yes | 31c | 123.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 70c | 106.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 30c | 100.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…b9d0backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…d369backed Yes | 15c | 76.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 67c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…5f4dbacked Yes | 33c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No | 76c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 5 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Ding Liren win game 5 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will game 5 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.