World Politics · resolved market
Will Ivana Kekin be the next President of Croatia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x378c1a4dd829a4407e59513089bce961cb21e45d5b6e7d99114da332862a1d44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,265,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,839,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,265,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ec…e943backed Yes | 0c | 19,407$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 0c | 18,470$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae88…8f5bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,566$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…44e5backed Yes | 1c | 12,357$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…16e5backed Yes | 0c | 10,045$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 0c | 9,522$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 54 | 0%0 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 9,199$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3444…3e0cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,189$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…179abacked Yes | 1c | 6,186$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…784ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,197$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f11…9e90backed Yes | 0c | 5,079$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…3141backed Yes | 0c | 4,850$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…6874backed Yes | 1c | 3,774$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…a108backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 0c | 2,914$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,408$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…db7ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…01e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,343$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,154$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ivana Kekin be the next President of Croatia?this page
- Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia?No won
- Will Marija Selak Raspudić be the next President of Croatia?No won
- Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia?Yes won
- Will another person be the next President of Croatia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.