NBA · resolved market
Will the Wizards win again this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3b7163cb3a098abc85591118f4f8edca4f08aeb02ff1f9080f4d22887174f52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 8c | 13,680$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.85 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed No | 36c | 10,000$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,649.99 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 30c | 8,088$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.41 | 313 | 47%147 W · 166 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 73c | 6,102$4,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.83 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 61c | 4,806$2,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.85 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 73c | 3,001$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.97 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 75c | 2,408$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.78 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 17c | 2,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed No | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 77c | 1,596$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.19 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 24c | 1,470$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.02 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed No | 25c | 1,316$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.67 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 23c | 1,020$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…861fbacked Yes | 62c | 930$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…5f76backed No | 38c | 930$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…6f70backed No | 38c | 930$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…fc8bbacked Yes | 62c | 930$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 66c | 861.74$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.74 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed No | 25c | 857.39$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.05 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…b75dbacked Yes | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Yes | 63c | 703$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.11 | 577 | 60.5%349 W · 228 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed No | 22c | 549.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 152 | 34.9%53 W · 99 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 71c | 488.04$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.77 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…429abacked No | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191c…36efbacked Yes | 66c | 420.89$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked No | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 229 | 55.9%128 W · 101 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 15c | 397.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 334 | 28.1%94 W · 240 L | -20.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6354…4cb2backed No | 20c | 372.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcd…2cc6backed Yes | 65c | 350$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed No | 32c | 315.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 64c | 312.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 265$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 35c | 242.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 20c | 200.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 67c | 192$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed No | 17c | 180.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 311 | 25.1%78 W · 233 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 173.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…86b6backed No | 34c | 147.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b4…6ecabacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 78c | 115$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 112.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed No | 26c | 102.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…5a95backed Yes | 65c | 51.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…aa64backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 64c | 32.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…4958backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea69…26dabacked Yes | 65c | 16.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.