TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$176,020
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,020 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 537 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0785…22f3backed Yes21c8,771$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.93837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+572.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No73c6,804$4,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.53240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes20c3,819$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.63650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No32c2,948$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.15875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes60c2,934$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.857222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes16c2,746$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.332626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21fa…e14cbacked Yes19c2,634$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69da…f98cbacked No78c1,918$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes31c1,858$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.93425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x506a…91cdbacked Yes3c1,680$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No50c1,566$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45d…f18cbacked Yes49c1,543$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No54c1,455$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.058220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc632…8e4fbacked Yes32c1,406$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No51c1,300$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.79933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No70c1,213$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.324751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes17c1,155$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No57c1,058$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.622416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9728…aefebacked No33c1,010$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+151.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47bc…2c4cbacked Yes67c1,010$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61ec…0cf7backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+67%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes77c970.35$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.231330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x76b9…b4febacked No60c967.96$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes44c899.83$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c874.32$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.4872935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1115…6dc0backed Yes7c850.8$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes1c789.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-69.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x851c…6ab4backed Yes27c739.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes38c712.77$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.4525731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes17c650$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.51051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes59c639.23$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.22934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes20c633.37$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6711030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed No73c600$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c593.78$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.957426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a4…4263backed No23c437.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+337.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf75b…672ebacked No47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.532100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5e…64ddbacked No29c424.65$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.612763%17 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6107…6d97backed Yes65c385$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b54…7453backed No64c357.93$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef58…2f14backed Yes30c332.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b0…f01cbacked Yes11c328.57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.58977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f5f…5985backed Yes42c299.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b6…360fbacked Yes7c289.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c286.13$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbbc…e74ebacked Yes76c285$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed Yes43c282.85$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.581040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa2…0204backed No52c281.6$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d0…1fb9backed No36c277.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c1…5d6fbacked No55c274.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x004d…665bbacked No40c258.16$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf178…661dbacked No43c250.32$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe87…ffdbbacked Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x53ef…33f5backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0824…f3f1backed Yes60c249.3$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafa8…4ad5backed No41c244.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b9…ebccbacked No36c244.14$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66cc…01adbacked No42c236.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.18837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146b…2e37backed Yes71c225.69$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe468…9b39backed No46c218.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd295…a832backed Yes39c200$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7750%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes63c200$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.822913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x092f…18acbacked Yes6c199.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes21c199.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0528828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes6c191.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34382.6%1 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-87.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd9…b9bcbacked No55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3919…e80fbacked Yes56c180.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x641c…456dbacked No51c177.45$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc91c…f09bbacked Yes50c177.4$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f5…be2cbacked Yes20c177$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ac…298bbacked No40c173.95$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+115.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54a1…5003backed Yes51c173.53$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a6…aa5ebacked No51c173.53$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfac8…7a9ebacked Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b4a…2f8bbacked No54c168$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6406…5497backed No60c166.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4346…28c0backed Yes39c166.37$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes76c165.07$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.44812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-80.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b5d…07c4backed No61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b3…d6c9backed Yes50c163$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0901…5ec2backed No49c160$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes63c159.96$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked Yes63c159$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No57c153.07$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick34cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e63…3600backed Yes64c152.51$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f7…77c3backed No55c152.46$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.46875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+37.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd726…ec9ebacked No33c151.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5456…2d0dbacked Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e80…83dabacked Yes70c147.14$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd024…b64cbacked No34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0ae…67d6backed Yes50c146$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb810…b043backed Yes69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab9e…bc2bbacked Yes17c144.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7e…e27bbacked Yes37c144$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No69c143.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-79.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94dd…bbddbacked Yes70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce6b…fc17backed Yes52c141$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x187f…34ddbacked Yes72c139.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No30c137.08$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.821560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.