TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump claims largest inauguration crowd ever?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,641
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,641 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x88b0…b118backed Yes57c7,927$4,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,532.9517544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes42c4,194$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.2616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No35c4,101$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,651.1911848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed Yes35c3,899$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.423435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No63c3,381$2,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.537041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7463…f1d3backed Yes23c2,984$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+84.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked No28c2,528$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.942352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d61…3c32backed No33c2,296$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.162437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No71c2,183$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.446053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes50c1,971$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.562343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked No46c1,874$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.688739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…776bbacked Yes15c1,317$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes8c1,061$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a03…b538backed Yes11c999.65$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.17520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes14c982.87$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.632638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes39c900$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3531711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-62.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No24c817.12$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.1923639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b08…8401backed Yes3c752.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes53c750$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.58143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No49c714.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.610035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes3c714.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.347014.3%10 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes14c700$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-70.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes42c600.14$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9db0…edb0backed Yes7c507.18$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28515238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.94820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes12c480.27$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.693859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes53c472$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.164259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c453.23$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.131,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf14…986fbacked Yes19c436.84$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833020%6 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No42c406.25$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.112544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfac5…7820backed Yes3c391.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-91.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf162…ba35backed Yes56c387.41$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.931833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes41c350$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.54323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa289…d95cbacked No20c282.41$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.291258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa740…e0e6backed No43c270$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed No69c264.56$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.757838.5%30 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d3…1dc9backed Yes57c263.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes16c260.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06df…4e7abacked Yes58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-63.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf153…19e4backed Yes19c232.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes9c231.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.644936.7%18 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b6a…3eedbacked No45c217.76$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.77540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes23c217.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes10c215.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4731840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c47…9b02backed Yes55c202$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.13167.7%21 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+108.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes15c199.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4730319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad4f…12a3backed Yes55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002119%4 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid+15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed Yes55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x78bf…cecfbacked Yes55c180.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-61.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a9…de62backed Yes57c176.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ecb…070fbacked Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3140…21f1backed No30c169$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes42c150$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes54c139.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.993450%17 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c133$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92bc…e467backed Yes79c120.25$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c5…e14bbacked Yes15c120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes78c115.19$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.853148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x487c…4daabacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes15c105$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7522347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…7f26backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf767…b532backed No24c99.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c5…7005backed No47c90.06$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68b7…c0bcbacked Yes47c87.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.592147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7ea…fa11backed Yes57c87.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c5…168abacked Yes18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08cc…4f3abacked Yes58c80.2$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.523246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+67.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No79c71.14$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.68377.1%64 W · 19 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+15.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b29…d1c9backed Yes52c69.39$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No61c67.77$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.38741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cf…c503backed No49c66.41$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed No47c63.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.291315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3980…5ceebacked No80c55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+80.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes57c52.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9de…0dc5backed Yes57c52.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301020%2 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.084122%9 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3325241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78cf…4816backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70fa…196dbacked Yes78c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.83447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1268…834bbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-50.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27cf…0160backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb407…1672backed Yes79c45.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No65c42.36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6217021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Yes55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3585…1595backed Yes55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Yes53c39.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.032934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x18bb…11b2backed Yes52c38.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20258%2 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda08…2abdbacked Yes55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad3…e05dbacked Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-56.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes76c31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.53026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf741…4bc5backed Yes77c29.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0317…7f6bbacked Yes56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b0…18b8backed Yes79c26.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57dd…b2fcbacked Yes58c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.