TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Trudeau resigns before February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$654,309
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$557,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $654,309 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf470…62d2backed No1c87,765$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.771020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No1c33,781$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.21922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No6c21,510$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.09780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No1c20,143$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7720328.6%58 W · 145 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No3c18,544$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.921414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-78.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked No1c18,188$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.45113.7%7 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+106.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No11c16,393$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.958921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No6c15,721$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.06520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No1c15,161$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2216744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes75c10,427$7,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,655.512420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-71%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No10c10,309$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.677650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No21c10,304$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,175.68540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No58c9,338$5,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,461.254055%22 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac02…e636backed No13c9,250$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.361040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No5c9,222$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.081931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes52c8,664$4,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,148.861464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes35c7,945$2,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,166.311145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+1,107.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No63c7,473$4,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,737.649721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No1c5,571$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.812123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No13c5,537$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.26238.7%2 W · 21 L-5.1wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-79%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xce73…70a9backed No18c5,228$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.25633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+162.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf321…a368backed No0c5,202$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No2c4,726$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.87125.4%18 W · 53 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No68c4,464$3,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,038.392147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad3f…c749backed No63c4,250$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,672.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x471f…f60abacked No68c3,905$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e53…cc49backed No14c3,890$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.78714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd08…ef3bbacked No5c3,666$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49c…28ddbacked Yes39c3,425$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+240.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes46c3,323$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.312425%6 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked No6c3,200$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No52c3,025$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585.6630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed No65c3,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9503333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes46c2,920$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.398529.4%25 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No11c2,831$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.913537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17dd…8dd1backed Yes36c2,831$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked No61c2,368$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No68c2,286$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.1540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0877…1a05backed No6c2,170$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e28…d1debacked No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes57c1,933$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.315149%25 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+168.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes40c1,922$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.882339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No16c1,879$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1748…890cbacked No6c1,723$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-84.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No2c1,654$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.112520%5 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dc…29b1backed No12c1,608$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No18c1,550$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.735429.6%16 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f13…45eebacked No3c1,473$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No19c1,448$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.813525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed No42c1,406$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26e3…f2e0backed No10c1,405$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed No28c1,306$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.88290%0 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd0f…ab47backed No6c1,302$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1824…9e2dbacked No11c1,281$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x068b…9301backed No54c1,244$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.23450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed No59c1,214$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.231947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No49c1,200$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.995425.9%14 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No58c1,177$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.24922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No4c1,172$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.623511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-79.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e8…7a20backed No6c1,172$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea9…d092backed Yes67c1,157$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No48c1,123$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.1933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffda…1e18backed Yes47c1,062$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bf…cecfbacked No4c1,058$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9873…7cc5backed No49c999.64$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.16366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fc2…7957backed Yes47c999$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28dd…9475backed No53c999$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.4720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes51c993$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.353429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x107d…b6cebacked No53c986$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.5820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49ab…40e0backed Yes47c986$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c2…b520backed Yes47c960$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00a4…e647backed No53c960$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd232…cff0backed Yes47c960$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b42…d37ebacked No53c960$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe45a…95ebbacked No46c953.37$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.01580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+59.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2df…d9c8backed Yes74c915.32$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.49560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes52c867.97$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.681136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed No6c847.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504228.6%12 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a18…7a46backed No7c847.27$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2020…0822backed Yes34c831.62$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.87742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc35…3e13backed No72c831.24$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No12c820.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.383318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-75.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No7c801.68$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.416328.6%18 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b84…bae0backed No48c773.01$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a8…da85backed No76c743.42$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.7840%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a6a…0aadbacked No14c706.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes29c700$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4976920.3%14 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c56…2845backed Yes35c658.36$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.56771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+36.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2f…aaf2backed No10c648.03$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e84…4b92backed Yes52c632.89$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30dd…03ffbacked No64c632.21$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc0…d9f4backed No12c601.79$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.66812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes43c581.87$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.111,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes49c554.41$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.223745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff0c…2560backed Yes52c519$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.31333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed Yes31c515.5$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.424753.2%25 W · 22 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea2c…0d53backed No14c483.22$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No15c480$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.437932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71bf…e9dbbacked No63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No60c457.18$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.9957636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.