World Politics · resolved market
Trudeau resigns before February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2525dfdd231169ed70088da9649041546c44fa1004fcbee1128334bff8f3edfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $654,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $557,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $654,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf470…62d2backed No | 1c | 87,765$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 1c | 33,781$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 6c | 21,510$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.09 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 1c | 20,143$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 3c | 18,544$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 1c | 18,188$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 11c | 16,393$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.95 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No | 6c | 15,721$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 1c | 15,161$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.22 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 75c | 10,427$7,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.51 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 10c | 10,309$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.67 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 21c | 10,304$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 58c | 9,338$5,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,461.25 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…e636backed No | 13c | 9,250$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 5c | 9,222$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.08 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 52c | 8,664$4,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,148.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 35c | 7,945$2,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,166.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +1,107.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 63c | 7,473$4,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,737.64 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 1c | 5,571$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 13c | 5,537$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.26 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -79%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed No | 18c | 5,228$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…a368backed No | 0c | 5,202$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 2c | 4,726$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 68c | 4,464$3,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,038.39 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…c749backed No | 63c | 4,250$2,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,672.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 68c | 3,905$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,660 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e53…cc49backed No | 14c | 3,890$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd08…ef3bbacked No | 5c | 3,666$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49c…28ddbacked Yes | 39c | 3,425$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +240.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 46c | 3,323$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.31 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked No | 6c | 3,200$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed No | 52c | 3,025$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 46c | 2,920$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.39 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 11c | 2,831$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.91 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…8dd1backed Yes | 36c | 2,831$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 61c | 2,368$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed No | 68c | 2,286$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…1a05backed No | 6c | 2,170$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…d1debacked No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 57c | 1,933$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.31 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,922$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.88 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 16c | 1,879$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…890cbacked No | 6c | 1,723$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 2c | 1,654$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dc…29b1backed No | 12c | 1,608$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 18c | 1,550$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.73 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f13…45eebacked No | 3c | 1,473$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 19c | 1,448$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.8 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed No | 42c | 1,406$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…f2e0backed No | 10c | 1,405$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed No | 28c | 1,306$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.88 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…ab47backed No | 6c | 1,302$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…9e2dbacked No | 11c | 1,281$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068b…9301backed No | 54c | 1,244$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 59c | 1,214$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 49c | 1,200$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.99 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 58c | 1,177$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 4c | 1,172$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…7a20backed No | 6c | 1,172$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea9…d092backed Yes | 67c | 1,157$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 48c | 1,123$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffda…1e18backed Yes | 47c | 1,062$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…cecfbacked No | 4c | 1,058$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9873…7cc5backed No | 49c | 999.64$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc2…7957backed Yes | 47c | 999$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…9475backed No | 53c | 999$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 51c | 993$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.35 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107d…b6cebacked No | 53c | 986$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…40e0backed Yes | 47c | 986$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…b520backed Yes | 47c | 960$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a4…e647backed No | 53c | 960$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…cff0backed Yes | 47c | 960$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…d37ebacked No | 53c | 960$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…95ebbacked No | 46c | 953.37$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2df…d9c8backed Yes | 74c | 915.32$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 52c | 867.97$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 6c | 847.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a18…7a46backed No | 7c | 847.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…0822backed Yes | 34c | 831.62$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…3e13backed No | 72c | 831.24$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 12c | 820.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 7c | 801.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…bae0backed No | 48c | 773.01$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a8…da85backed No | 76c | 743.42$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…0aadbacked No | 14c | 706.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 29c | 700$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c56…2845backed Yes | 35c | 658.36$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…aaf2backed No | 10c | 648.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…4b92backed Yes | 52c | 632.89$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…03ffbacked No | 64c | 632.21$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…d9f4backed No | 12c | 601.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 581.87$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.11 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 49c | 554.41$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.22 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…2560backed Yes | 52c | 519$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 31c | 515.5$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.42 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea2c…0d53backed No | 14c | 483.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 15c | 480$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71bf…e9dbbacked No | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 457.18$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.99 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.