Music · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9c76abd29c3659cd55dd25d740c9c6482ac53f2663ebc616d38a9a939a8c649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc15f…650abacked No | 62c | 765.45$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 42c | 580.63$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.73 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191c…36efbacked Yes | 3c | 562.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 30c | 476.61$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 42c | 400$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 41c | 320.63$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.58 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…848ebacked Yes | 11c | 319.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +261.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 33c | 308.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…506abacked No | 58c | 300$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 290.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.03 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 15c | 178.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 38c | 159.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71e…4c70backed No | 60c | 138.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.41per pick | 56cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 40c | 98.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885c…1f1abacked Yes | 21c | 98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53f…e0b9backed No | 79c | 98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…ef6fbacked Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e8…dc5bbacked No | 79c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79bd…c95bbacked No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…df85backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d72…4833backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa361…2de3backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…9705backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5551…83cdbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e8…6565backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cf…bf64backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cc…4ae2backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…db7ebacked No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e4…2e86backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad83…775ebacked No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…cc00backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…64b0backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kendrick Lamar be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?this page
- Will Dua Lipa be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?No won
- Will Olivia Rodrigo be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?No won
- Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?No won
- Will The Weekend be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?No won
- Will someone else be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.